Portfolio overview
Locked, event-driven biotech analyses. The unit is the program — one drug in one indication — not the company. Each names a binary catalyst and scores two things separately: the clinical/regulatory outcome and the stock direction into and out of the event.
Data as of 2026-08-20
Companies
22
tickers covered
Programs analysed
24
24 cleared the gate
Predictions locked
24
outcome + stock
Settled
6
18 awaiting
Next catalyst
2026-08-26
earliest confirmed readout
Catalyst timeline
When each analysed program is expected to read out
24 of 24 analysed programshave a confirmed readout window.
Table view
Programs by company
Outcome probability and the two stock scenarios are modelled independently, from named anchors — not always in agreement
| Program | Catalyst | Coverage | Outcome | Scenario prices | EV vs spot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGVN Longeveron Inc 1 analysed program | ||||||
| Laromestrocel (Lomecel-B) Hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) — adjunct to stage-2 (Glenn) surgical palliation in infants | 2026-08-12 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 30%
[20–40]
| $0.22–$0.45 $1.20–$2.20 | $0.74+0.6%
modelled
-17.8% to +19.1% vs spot across the 20– 40% band — the sign is not settled | |
| VALN Valneva SE 1 analysed program | ||||||
| Shigella4V2 (S4V2) Prevention of shigellosis caused by Shigella sonnei and Shigella flexneri serotypes 2a, 3a and 6 | 2026-08-13 → 2026-12-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 32%
[20–47]
| $4.60–$5.15 $5.80–$7.00 | $5.36+1.2%
modelled
-2.3% to +5.5% vs spot across the 20– 47% band — the sign is not settled | |
| MNOV MediciNova, Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| MN-001 (tipelukast) Hypertriglyceridemia and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) due to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) | 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 15%
[8–28]
| $1.05–$1.50 $1.60–$2.15 | $1.37+2.6%
modelled
-0.5% to +8.5% vs spot across the 8– 28% band — the sign is not settled | |
| ARCT Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| ARCT-810 (LUNAR-OTC) Ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency | 2026-09-01 → 2026-11-30 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 38%
[25–52]
| $6.00–$7.20 $9.50–$13.00 | $8.37+5.0%
modelled
-2.6% to +13.1% vs spot across the 25– 52% band — the sign is not settled | |
| CNTB Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited 2 analysed programs | ||||||
| Rademikibart (CBP-201) Acute exacerbations of asthma with type 2 inflammation (blood eosinophils >=300 cells/uL), in adults and adolescents aged 12-75 | 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 38%
[26–52]
| $0.95–$1.60 $3.60–$6.50 | $2.71+16.3%
modelled
-3.2% to +39.0% vs spot across the 26– 52% band — the sign is not settled | |
| Rademikibart (CBP-201) Acute exacerbations of COPD with type 2 inflammation (blood eosinophils >=300 cells/uL at the exacerbation), in adults aged 40-80, given as an add-on to standard of care | 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 30%
[20–42]
| $1.10–$2.10 $4.00–$7.00 | $2.77+8.2%
modelled
-7.0% to +26.5% vs spot across the 20– 42% band — the sign is not settled | |
| EVMN Evommune, Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| EVO756 (oral MRGPRX2 antagonist) Moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis | 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-30 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 30%
[20–45]
| $8.50–$11.00 $21.00–$30.00 | $14.48+1.6%
modelled
-9.5% to +18.2% vs spot across the 20– 45% band — the sign is not settled | |
| IRON Disc Medicine, Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| DISC-3405 (formerly MWTX-003) Polycythemia vera | 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 78%
[65–87]
| $67.00–$74.00 $84.00–$91.00 | $83.76+5.3%
modelled
+2.6% to +7.3% vs spot across the 65– 87% band — the sign is not settled | |
| RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. 2 analysed programs | ||||||
| DTX301 (avalotcagene ontaparvovec) Late-onset ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency, age 12 and over | 2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 62%
[48–75]
| $22.00–$27.00 $27.00–$33.00 | $27.91+4.6%
modelled
+1.8% to +7.3% vs spot across the 48– 75% band — the sign is not settled | |
| GTX-102 (apazunersen) Angelman syndrome caused by full maternal UBE3A deletion, ages 4-17 | 2026-09-01 → 2026-11-10 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Uncertain 50%
[35–65]
| $16.00–$21.00 $34.00–$42.00 | $28.25+9.4%
modelled
-1.9% to +20.7% vs spot across the 35– 65% band — the sign is not settled | |
| TYRA Tyra Biosciences 1 analysed program | ||||||
| dabogratinib (TYRA-300) Low-grade, intermediate-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (IR NMIBC), FGFR3-altered | 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 55%
[40–68]
| $14.00–$20.00 $30.00–$46.00 | $28.55+5.9%
modelled
-5.8% to +16.0% vs spot across the 40– 68% band — the sign is not settled | |
| CUE Cue Biopharma, Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| CUE-221 (formerly Ascendant-221, formerly UB-221) - humanised anti-IgE IgG1 monoclonal antibody Chronic spontaneous urticaria (long-lasting hives with no identifiable trigger), in patients inadequately controlled by H1-antihistamines | 2026-09-15 → 2026-12-15 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 72%
[58–83]
| $9.00–$16.00 $24.00–$46.00 | $28.70+10.0%
modelled
-2.1% to +19.4% vs spot across the 58– 83% band — the sign is not settled | |
| TLSA Tiziana Life Sciences 1 analysed program | ||||||
| intranasal foralumab (TZLS-401 / NI-0401) Non-active secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (na-SPMS) | 2026-09-15 → 2026-11-30 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 35%
[20–52]
| $0.30–$0.55 $1.80–$3.00 | $1.12+11.6%
modelled
-18.0% to +45.2% vs spot across the 20– 52% band — the sign is not settled | |
| CGEM Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| Zipalertinib (CLN-081 / TAS-6417) Previously untreated, locally advanced or metastatic non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer carrying an EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation (first line) | 2026-10-01 → 2027-03-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 78%
[65–88]
| $13.50–$16.25 $19.50–$24.00 | $20.24+12.2%
modelled
+7.3% to +16.1% vs spot across the 65– 88% band — the sign is not settled | |
| DWTX Dogwood Therapeutics, Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| Halneuron (purified tetrodotoxin) Chemotherapy-induced neuropathic pain (CINP) attributable to prior platinum and/or taxane chemotherapy | 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 38%
[26–49]
| $0.28–$1.28 $3.28–$9.50 | $2.91+50.5%
modelled
+15.7% to +82.4% vs spot across the 26– 49% band — the sign is not settled | |
| GNLX Genelux Corporation 1 analysed program | ||||||
| Olvi-Vec (olvimulogene nanivacirepvec), also known as GL-ONC1 and GLV-1h68, an engineered oncolytic vaccinia virus, given intraperitoneally and followed by platinum-doublet chemotherapy plus bevacizumab Platinum-resistant or platinum-refractory, non-resectable high-grade serous, endometrioid or clear-cell ovarian, fallopian tube or primary peritoneal cancer, after at least three prior lines of systemic therapy including bevacizumab | 2026-10-01 → 2027-04-30 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Uncertain 35%
[20–55]
| $0.45–$1.30 $6.00–$14.00 | $4.07+49.6%
modelled
-0.7% to +116.7% vs spot across the 20– 55% band — the sign is not settled | |
| IVA Inventiva S.A. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| lanifibranor (IVA337) Non-cirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) with fibrosis stage F2 or F3 | 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 55%
[40–70]
| $1.00–$2.00 $7.00–$13.00 | $6.18+30.9%
modelled
+3.8% to +57.8% vs spot across the 40– 70% band — the sign is not settled | |
| RAPP Rapport Therapeutics, Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| RAP-219 Acute treatment of manic episodes, with or without mixed features, associated with bipolar I disorder, in adults aged 18-65 | 2026-10-01 → 2026-11-30 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 35%
[22–48]
| $37.00–$45.00 $56.00–$68.00 | $48.35-1.2%
modelled
-6.8% to +4.4% vs spot across the 22– 48% band — the sign is not settled | |
| IMMP Immutep Limited 1 analysed program | ||||||
| Eftilagimod alfa (efti, IMP321) with pembrolizumab and radiotherapy Resectable, non-metastatic, FNCLCC grade 2-3 soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities, girdles or superficial trunk, primary tumour larger than 5 cm or any locally recurrent tumour, given before surgery | 2026-10-19 → 2026-10-19 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 85%
[72–92]
| $0.28–$0.36 $0.36–$0.46 | $0.40-0.9%
modelled
-3.8% to +0.7% vs spot across the 72– 92% band — the sign is not settled | |
| CMPX Compass Therapeutics, Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| Tovecimig (CTX-009), a DLL4 x VEGF-A bispecific antibody Second-line unresectable advanced, metastatic or recurrent biliary tract cancer | 2026-10-23 → 2026-10-27 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 55%
[42–68]
| $1.65–$2.15 $2.70–$3.30 | $2.51+1.0%
modelled
-4.8% to +6.8% vs spot across the 42– 68% band — the sign is not settled | |
| ABOS Acumen Pharmaceuticals 1 analysed program | ||||||
| sabirnetug (ACU193) Early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease (mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia, amyloid-confirmed) | 2026-11-15 → 2027-01-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Miss 35%
[25–48]
| $0.55–$1.20 $4.50–$11.00 | $3.28+43.9%
modelled
+13.8% to +83.1% vs spot across the 25– 48% band — the sign is not settled | |
| IMUX Immunic, Inc. 1 analysed program | ||||||
| vidofludimus calcium (IMU-838) Relapsing multiple sclerosis (relapsing-remitting and active secondary progressive) | 2026-12-01 → 2027-03-31 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 60%
[50–70]
| $2.40–$3.80 $17.00–$27.00 | $14.44+2.4%
modelled
-11.0% to +15.8% vs spot across the 50– 70% band — the sign is not settled | |
| OLMA Olema Pharmaceuticals 1 analysed program | ||||||
| palazestrant (OP-1250) ER+/HER2- locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, second and third line, after endocrine therapy plus a CDK4/6 inhibitor | 2027-01-01 → 2027-06-30 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Uncertain 40%
[30–52]
| $4.50–$8.50 $15.50–$32.00 | $13.40+28.5%
modelled
+11.9% to +48.3% vs spot across the 30– 52% band — the sign is not settled | |
| ZNTL Zentalis Pharmaceuticals 1 analysed program | ||||||
| azenosertib (ZN-c3) Cyclin E1-positive platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC) | 2027-01-01 → 2027-06-30 confirmed readout window | Cleared | Positive 55%
[42–68]
| $1.00–$2.30 $6.50–$10.00 | $5.28+26.9%
modelled
+6.3% to +47.5% vs spot across the 42– 68% band — the sign is not settled | |
Run-up priority ranking
The seven-driver score behind each program, and the backtest verdict on whether it can be trusted yet
Every analysed program's run-up priority score (lib/runup.mjs,
formula v2.0.0), computed live. This table never reads the ledger, so it is
separate from the run-up calls already locked there. value_uplift still
scores through the pre-2.0.0 passthrough on this page: its driver builder never supplies
ratio_base, the same gap
CHANGELOG.md's 6.0.0 entry names for the backtest, so the version label
does not yet mean these numbers differ from 1.0.0's. Ordered by the readout window, the same
conservative edge the table above uses, not by this score.
Score verdict: INCONCLUSIVE — this ranking does not yet discriminate
scripts/runup-backtest.mjs scored
priority_score against 60 (program
× as-of) rows of real trading history: pooled rho 0.257 against
a bar of 0.3 fixed before any
data was seen — 0.108 unrounded,
0.161 computed within each as-of
date (range -0.349 to +0.648). It beats a naive
sort-by-catalyst-date baseline (rho 0.04) but
misses its own bar. Only two of the seven drivers below — priced-in-ness and traded liquidity
(within squeeze) — carry any real variation in this corpus, and the backtest found the
correlation is carried mostly by the liquidity bucket, not the continuous driver. That is why
the ranking below is ordered by the readout window, not by this score.
Driver detail table (all seven scores, per program)
| Program | UN | VU | OP | DC | SQ | PI | FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGVN/laromestrocel-hlhs | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 76 | 45 |
| VALN/s4v2-shigellosis | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 69 | 45 |
| MNOV/mn-001-nafld-hypertriglyceridemia | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 75 | 45 |
| ARCT/arct-810-otc-deficiency | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 58 | 79 | 45 |
| CNTB/rademikibart-acute-asthma-exacerbation | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 92 | 45 |
| CNTB/rademikibart-acute-copd-exacerbation | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 92 | 45 |
| EVMN/evo756-atopic-dermatitis | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 58 | 98 | 45 |
| IRON/disc-3405-polycythemia-vera | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 43 | 50 | 45 |
| RARE/gtx-102-angelman-syndrome | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 43 | 93 | 45 |
| TYRA/dabogratinib-ir-nmibc | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 50 | 53 | 45 |
| CUE/cue-221-csu | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 58 | 48 | 45 |
| TLSA/foralumab-na-spms | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 84 | 45 |
| CGEM/zipalertinib-1l-egfr-ex20ins-nsclc | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 50 | 12 | 45 |
| DWTX/halneuron-cinp | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 89 | 45 |
| GNLX/olvi-vec-platinum-resistant-ovarian | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 94 | 45 |
| IVA/lanifibranor-mash | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 58 | 70 | 45 |
| RAPP/rap-219-bipolar-mania | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 50 | 2 | 45 |
| IMMP/efti-pembrolizumab-soft-tissue-sarcoma | 50 | 50 | 50 | 40 | 65 | 97 | 45 |
| CMPX/tovecimig-biliary-tract-cancer | 50 | 50 | 50 | 40 | 58 | 85 | 45 |
| ABOS/sabirnetug-alzheimers | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 33 | 45 |
| IMUX/vidofludimus-relapsing-ms | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 65 | 3 | 45 |
| OLMA/palazestrant-er-positive-mbc | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 50 | 81 | 45 |
| RARE/dtx301-otc-deficiency | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 43 | 93 | 45 |
| ZNTL/azenosertib-cyclin-e1-proc | 50 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 58 | 56 | 45 |
Unmet need, value uplift and outcome probability score neutral (50) — no run-up call has ever been locked, so there is no analyst judgement to read and today's real outcome probability would be look-ahead if scored here. Date confidence is a proxy gate derived from BPIQ's exact-day flag, uniformly low. Financing/clustering risk defaults in the absence of a stored attribution or runway call. Hover a priced-in or squeeze cell above for its own basis.