CGEM — Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc.
Company context · prepared 2026-08-10 · company sweep 2026-08-10 · USD · framework v5.6.0
How to read this. Written for a reader who has not studied pharmacology or finance. General terms are defined once in
framework/04-glossary.md. Tags:[VERIFIED — source]/[UNVERIFIED]/[WEB ESTIMATE — source, date].Program analyses for this company are the sub-folders listed in C.2.
C.0 Company-tier coverage — CLEARED
| Tool | State | Note / verbatim error |
|---|---|---|
BPIQ fetch_company_info | CALLED | Returned on the first attempt, read 2026-08-10. Price fields are live intraday; the financial fields carry finance_updated_at 2026-06-30 and the short-interest fields 2026-07-15. Three fields remain unusable and are treated as such below: cash ($334.538M) is the narrow cash-and-equivalents-and-short-term line and understates disclosed liquidity; tute_own (1.06111) and insider_own (0.00425) read as neither fractions nor percentages; enterprise_value ($807.898M) implies subtracting a cash figure that matches no disclosed number. |
BPIQ fetch_company_drugs | CALLED | 14 rows, every one reproduced in C.2. Four carry stage_label Failed. Six rows now carry has_catalyst: true — velinotamig (id 19423, Q4 2026 data) joined the list since the 2026-08-05 sweep. Two rows are zipalertinib (16438, 17466) and four are CLN-978, so only the integer id separates programs. |
BPIQ fetch_company_historical_catalysts | CALLED | 19 rows, 2021-12-16 to 2026-07-28. 2026-06-10 appears three times and 2025-12-08 twice with identical price fields, so 16 distinct event dates. Reproduced in C.7. |
BPIQ fetch_company_options_data | CALLED | Response exceeded the tool output limit (50,757 characters) and was read in full from the saved file with jq. Eight expiries, 308 contracts, date_updated 2026-08-10. Whole-chain open interest 5,103 contracts against zero contracts of day volume. 10 of 308 sit on the documented 0.01488 implied-volatility floor artifact. See C.6. |
BPIQ fetch_company_insider_transactions | CALLED | Response exceeded the tool output limit (57,256 characters) and was read in full from the saved file with jq. 250 rows, 2022-05-13 to 2026-07-06 — the documented four-quarter limit again does not hold for this ticker. Nothing new since the 2026-08-05 sweep: the newest row is still the Chief Scientific Officer’s routine 2026-07-06 exercise-and-sell. |
BPIQ fetch_company_press_releases | CALLED | 131 items, 2020-12-17 to 2026-08-09. Sole feed carrying the Q2 2026 results (2026-08-06), which update cash, burn and the REZILIENT3 guidance. |
BPIQ fetch_company_hedge_fund_holdings | CALLED | Optional. 17 quarters, 2022Q2 to 2026Q2. Internally consistent within each quarter. New finding this sweep: the filing_qtr label is the filing quarter, not the holdings quarter — the price implied by value ÷ shares in the “2026Q2” block is $14.21, which the committed price cache shows is the 2026-03-31 close, not the 2026-06-30 close ($18.21). Every quarter-end attribution in C.4 and C.5 is corrected for this one-quarter lag. |
BPIQ fetch_company_earnings_transcript | CALLED | Optional. Returned no content, same as the 2026-08-05 sweep. A legitimate empty result counts as CALLED; management’s own spoken framing of REZILIENT3 was again unavailable. |
EDGAR submissions | CALLED | CIK 0001789972. Filing feed read to 2026-08-07. Cross-checks the insider connector (Form 4s match) and surfaces two facts no other connector carries: an S-3ASR automatic shelf registration filed 2026-04-28, and a new Schedule 13G filed 2026-08-07 by State Street Corp (filer CIK 0000093751). No 424B5 prospectus supplement follows the shelf, so no at-the-market program is currently established off it. |
EDGAR XBRL companyconcept (dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding) | CALLED | 64,354,694 common shares as of 2026-07-31 (10-Q filed 2026-08-06), up from 61,458,046 at 2026-04-30. The companion concepts explain the jump: PreferredStockSharesOutstanding fell 481,989 → 204,209 across Q2 2026, so 277,780 preferred converted into ~2.78M common. No new money was raised. |
FINRA consolidatedShortInterest | CALLED | Settlement 2026-07-15: 10,285,963 shares short, days-to-cover 15.22, average daily volume 675,823. The 2026-07-31 settlement returned empty — publication lag per 02-connectors.md, not a missing ticker. Divided by the EDGAR-filed share count: 16.0% of shares outstanding; against the ~44M free float implied by subtracting the eight 13F holders, ~23% of float, which matches BPIQ’s short_float 0.23064 and finally corroborates that field’s units for this ticker (fraction of float). |
| optional Yahoo options chain | BLOCKED | Crumb endpoint returned verbatim Too Many Requests on two attempts. Optional row, so no coverage cost; the BPIQ chain is the sole options source this sweep and C.6 treats it accordingly. |
What this coverage does and does not cover. Every mandatory company-tier tool returned data, so the company tier is CLEARED. Coverage does not mean every returned field is correct: the same BPIQ fields that were wrong on 2026-08-05 are still wrong, one new connector labelling bug was found (the 13F quarter lag), and each is recomputed or discarded below rather than passed through.
C.1 What the company is
Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
It has no approved product and no product revenue [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_info
full_description; the 2026-03-10 full-year 2025 release reports $0 revenue and a $219.9M net
loss].
It is not a single-asset company. It runs fourteen program rows, of which four are marked Failed
/ Discontinued [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_drugs]: CLN-619 (two rows), CLN-418 and CLN-617,
together the former wholly-owned solid-tumour immuno-oncology effort, shut down across 2025 on the
company’s own reading of its own data [VERIFIED — BPIQ note fields; Fierce Biotech, 2025-11-06].
What remains is two things. The first is zipalertinib, an oral lung-cancer tablet that Cullinan no longer owns outright: Taiho Pharmaceutical acquired the subsidiary holding it in 2022, and Cullinan retains a 50/50 share of United States development costs and of any future United States pre-tax profits, plus $30M on a second-line United States approval and up to $100M on a first-line United States approval [VERIFIED — Cullinan Q2 2026 release, 2026-08-06]. Everything outside the United States belongs to Taiho. The second is a set of T cell engager programs in autoimmune disease — CLN-978 (targeting CD19) and velinotamig (targeting BCMA) — which Cullinan owns and which carry most of the equity story. A T cell engager is an antibody-like molecule with two grabbing ends: one holds a patient’s own T cell, the other holds a target cell, and holding them together makes the T cell kill the target. In autoimmune disease the targets are B cells, the cells that make the antibodies attacking the patient’s own tissue.
The market has already made this switch: the largest single up-moves in C.7 are autoimmune and blood-cancer readouts, and the day zipalertinib’s regulatory application was accepted the shares fell 4.4%.
C.2 Pipeline — every program
Every one of the fourteen rows returned by fetch_company_drugs on 2026-08-10 is listed, including
the four discontinued ones. Catalyst dates are given exactly as disclosed; the “to a day?” column is
yes only where the disclosed text names a day (rule 23).
| Program (drug — indication) | bpiq_drug_id | Stage & event | Catalyst (as disclosed) | Date to a day? | Analysed? | Materiality to the stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zipalertinib — NSCLC with EGFR exon 20 insertion mutations, after platinum chemotherapy with or without amivantamab (second line and later) | 16438 | PDUFA · Approval decision | February 27, 2027 | Yes | No | Meaningful. Approval triggers the $30M milestone and starts Cullinan’s 50% share of United States pre-tax profit on the second-line label. Not dominant: the shares fell 4.4% the day this application was accepted (C.7), so approval is largely assumed rather than debated. |
| Zipalertinib — NSCLC, first line, REZILIENT3 | 17466 | Phase 3 · Data readout | Q4 2026 (“top-line results expected by end of 2026”) | No | Yes → zipalertinib-1l-egfr-ex20ins-nsclc/ | Meaningful, not dominant. A win adds the larger first-line population, up to $100M of milestones and half the United States first-line profit stream — roughly 15–30% of enterprise value on the program’s own modelling. Capped by the 50% US-only economics, a control arm that is no longer the US standard of care, and three autoimmune readouts in the same or the preceding quarter that have historically moved this stock more. |
| CLN-049 (FLT3×CD3 T cell engager) — acute myeloid leukemia | 13562 | Phase 2 · Initiation | Q3 2026 | No | No (has_catalyst: false) | Meaningful. The 2025-12-08 Phase 1 ASH data produced the largest up-move in the record, +14.23% (C.7). The FDA agreed on 2026-07-28 that the Phase 2 can be registrational. A trial start is not itself a value event; the program behind it is real. |
| CLN-978 (CD19×CD3) — lupus nephritis | 20546 | Phase 2a · Initiation | Early 2027 | No | No (has_catalyst: false) | Immaterial as an event. A planned trial start already disclosed. The program it belongs to is not immaterial. |
| Velinotamig (BCMA×CD3) — autoimmune diseases (Genrix Bio partnership) | 19423 | Phase 1/2 · Data readout | Q4 2026 | No | No | Meaningful. New to the catalyst list since 2026-08-05: additional multi-dose systemic lupus data from the Genrix-run Phase 1/2 are now guided for Q4 2026, the same window as REZILIENT3. The first two SLE patients showed complete renal responses by week 8 (2026-06-10 Immunology Day). |
| Velinotamig (BCMA×CD3) — autoimmune cytopenias (immune thrombocytopenia, autoimmune haemolytic anaemia) | 20545 | Phase 1/2 · Initiation | Early 2027 | No | No (has_catalyst: false) | Immaterial as an event. A planned basket-study start, one indication of several for this asset. |
| CLN-978 — systemic lupus erythematosus | 18188 | Phase 1 · Data readout | Q4 2026 (“initial multi-dose regimen data in Q4 2026”) | No | No | Dominant. This row and the rheumatoid arthritis row below are what the equity trades on. The shares rose about 31% in late June 2026 on autoimmune T cell engager data (C.7 and the press feed). Same window as REZILIENT3. |
| CLN-978 — Sjögren’s disease | 18907 | Phase 1 · Data readout | Q4 2026 | No | No | Meaningful. First data from the single-dose escalation in a new indication, in the same quarter as REZILIENT3. |
| CLN-978 — rheumatoid arthritis | 18971 | Phase 1 · Data readout | Q3 2026 (“additional multi-dose regimen data in Q3 2026”) | No | No | Dominant, for the same reason as the lupus row. This one lands before REZILIENT3 and will reset the price level the readout is measured against. |
| CLN-978 — non-Hodgkin lymphoma, blood cancer | 17069 | Phase 1 · Update | TBA | No | No (has_catalyst: false) | Immaterial. Enrolment halted 2024-04-16 to focus the molecule on autoimmune disease. |
| CLN-619 (MICA/B antibody) — multiple myeloma | 18087 | Failed · Discontinued | — | — | No | Immaterial. Discontinued 2025-11-06 after review of emerging clinical data. |
| CLN-418 (B7H4×4-1BB) — solid tumours | 17068 | Failed · Discontinued | — | — | No | Immaterial. Discontinued; Harbour BioMed notified of termination. |
| CLN-617 (IL-2 and IL-12) ± pembrolizumab — cancer, solid tumours | 17070 | Failed · Discontinued | — | — | No | Immaterial. Discontinued 2025-11-06. |
| CLN-619 (MICA/B) ± pembrolizumab — solid tumours, cancer | 15244 | Failed · Discontinued | — | — | No | Immaterial. Same discontinuation as row 18087; the feed carries monotherapy and combination as separate rows. |
What the four failures mean. All four discontinuations are wholly-owned oncology assets stopped on the company’s own reading of its own clinical data, not on a safety hold or a regulatory action. Stopping a program on weak data is correct behaviour, but the wholly-owned oncology portfolio has not produced a winner, and the equity therefore rests on the autoimmune T cell engagers plus a half-share of somebody else’s lung-cancer drug.
What changed since 2026-08-05. One row joined the catalyst list: velinotamig’s Genrix-run Phase 1/2 (19423) now guides additional lupus data for Q4 2026 rather than “TBA”. That makes four disclosed data readouts in Q4 2026 on this one ticker — REZILIENT3, CLN-978 lupus, CLN-978 Sjögren’s, velinotamig lupus — plus CLN-978 rheumatoid arthritis just before in Q3.
C.3 Financial position
| Item | Value | As of | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents (BPIQ narrow line) | $334.538M | 2026-06-30 | [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_info cash; still not the company’s stated liquidity, see below] |
| Total cash, cash equivalents, investments and interest receivable | $356.0M | 2026-06-30 | [VERIFIED — Cullinan Q2 2026 release, 2026-08-06] |
| Burn (per month), from the trailing twelve months | $14.52M ($174.267M ÷ 12) | 2026-06-30 | [VERIFIED — recomputed from BPIQ ttm_burn] |
| Burn (per month), from the latest quarter | $12.74M ($38.219M ÷ 3) | 2026-06-30 | [VERIFIED — recomputed from BPIQ qtr_burn; BPIQ’s own monthly_burn of $12.740M agrees, and so does the disclosed cash change: $393.3M at 2026-03-31 → $356.0M at 2026-06-30 is $12.43M per month] |
| Q2 2026 operating expense, for comparison | $57.2M ($44.4M research and development + $12.8M general and administrative); net loss $53.7M | 2026-06-30 | [VERIFIED — Cullinan Q2 2026 release] |
| Runway as the company states it | ”into 2029” | 2026-08-06 | [VERIFIED — Cullinan Q2 2026 release, reiterated from Q1] |
| Runway recomputed (cash ÷ burn) | $356.0M ÷ $12.74M per month = 27.9 months from 2026-06-30, so about 2028-10 | 2026-06-30 | [VERIFIED — arithmetic on the two verified figures above] |
| Runway as BPIQ states it | 2028-02-16 | 2026-08-10 | [VERIFIED — BPIQ bpiq_pick_criteria; unchanged since at least 2026-08-05 and now inconsistent with its own burn fields] |
| Debt | None disclosed | 2026-08-10 | [UNVERIFIED] — no debt instrument in the press feed, the filing feed or any BPIQ field. The balance sheet itself was not opened this sweep. |
The BPIQ cash field is still not the company’s liquidity, but the error shrank. On 2026-08-05 the connector reported $75.081M against a disclosed $393.3M — a five-fold understatement. This sweep it reports $334.538M against a disclosed $356.0M. The field appears to have switched to a broader line, which means it cannot even be relied on to be wrong in a consistent way. Every liquidity claim in this repository for CGEM uses the company’s own $356.0M.
The three runway numbers still disagree, and the reconciliation still matters for this program. Arithmetic gives about October 2028. BPIQ gives February 2028. The company gives “into 2029”. The most likely reconciliation remains the zipalertinib milestones: $30M on second-line approval (PDUFA 2027-02-27) and up to $100M on first-line approval, which REZILIENT3 gates. Roughly $130M at $12.74M per month is about ten months, moving late 2028 into 2029. That reconciliation is [UNVERIFIED — modelled]; if right, the company’s stated runway is partly contingent on zipalertinib succeeding.
Dilution history. No equity offering appears in the press feed, the insider feed or the EDGAR
filing feed between 2024-08-10 and 2026-08-10 [VERIFIED — all three read in full for the window].
The ~2.9M-share increase in Q2 2026 is preferred stock converting, not new issuance: EDGAR XBRL
shows preferred outstanding falling 481,989 → 204,209 across the quarter while common rose by
2,894,390, and no ProceedsFromIssuanceOfCommonStock entry exists for 2026 [VERIFIED — EDGAR XBRL
companyconcept].
| Date | Instrument | Gross proceeds | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (none in the last 24 months) | — | — | — | BPIQ press and insider feeds, EDGAR submissions, all read in full for the window |
| 2026-04-28 | S-3ASR automatic shelf registration — capacity, not a raise; no 424B5 supplement follows it, so no at-the-market program is established off it yet | — | — | EDGAR submissions |
| 2023-01-19 | Series A Convertible Preferred issued to BVF Partners (640,000 preferred; each converts into ten common) | Not disclosed in the feed | Not disclosed | BPIQ fetch_company_insider_transactions |
| 2020-12-17 | Series C private financing (pre-flotation) | $131.2M | — | Business Wire, 2020-12-17 |
Is a raise likely before the next catalyst? No. $356.0M against a $12.74M monthly burn leaves no funding need inside the Q4 2026 window. What changed since 2026-08-05: a live shelf now exists (the S-3ASR), so the mechanism for an opportunistic raise is on file even though no ATM program hangs off it. A raise into strength after a positive autoimmune readout is the standard play for a company in this position; that would be a post-catalyst risk, not a pre-catalyst one.
C.4 Valuation frame
| Item | Value | Source / tag |
|---|---|---|
| Share price (spot) | $18.03, up $0.30 (+1.67%) on a previous close of $17.73, on 279,600 shares; day range $17.30–$18.27 | [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_info, read 2026-08-10 intraday] |
| Market capitalisation as BPIQ reports it | $1,089.651M | [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_info] |
| Shares implied by that market capitalisation | 60.4M ($1,089.651M ÷ $18.03) | [VERIFIED — arithmetic; ~4M below the filed count, so the field is again computed on a stale share count] |
| Shares outstanding, filed | 64,354,694 common as of 2026-07-31 | [VERIFIED — EDGAR XBRL dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06] |
| Market capitalisation recomputed on the filed count | $1,160.3M (64,354,694 × $18.03) | [VERIFIED — arithmetic on two verified inputs] |
| Enterprise value as BPIQ reports it | $807.898M — implies subtracting $281.75M of cash, matching neither its own $334.5M nor the disclosed $356.0M | [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_info; the inconsistency is the finding] |
| Enterprise value recomputed | $804.3M ($1,160.3M − $356.0M) | [VERIFIED — arithmetic on verified inputs] |
| 52-week high / low | $19.43 (2026-06-26) / $5.68 (2025-10-03) | [VERIFIED — derived from data/prices/CGEM.json with lib/prices.mjs range52w(bars, "2026-08-10"); BPIQ’s fields agree this sweep] |
| Position in the 52-week range, computed off the cache’s last close | ($17.61 − $5.68) ÷ ($19.43 − $5.68) = 86.8% (cache close 2026-08-05; today’s intraday $18.03 would be 89.8%) | [VERIFIED — lib/prices.mjs positionInRange; the cache runs to 2026-08-05, fetched 2026-08-06] |
| Distance below the 52-week high | 7.2% off today’s intraday $18.03 | [VERIFIED — arithmetic] |
| Multiple off the 52-week low | 3.17× off $18.03 (3.10× off the cache close) | [VERIFIED — arithmetic] |
This is the run-up baseline, and it is more demanding than it was five days ago. The shares sit within 8% of their 52-week high going into a quarter carrying four disclosed readouts. The path is read from the committed price cache rather than reconstructed from 13F values (the method the 2026-08-05 sweep used — and which this sweep found to be mislabelled by one quarter, see C.5):
| Date | Close | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | $5.93 | quarter end nearest the trough |
| 2025-10-03 | $5.90 close / $5.68 intraday low | the 52-week low — LYNX1’s October buying (C.5) starts five days later |
| 2025-12-31 | $10.35 | |
| 2026-03-31 | $14.21 | |
| 2026-06-26 | $19.43 intraday | the 52-week high, printed on the +31% autoimmune-data week |
| 2026-06-30 | $18.21 | |
| 2026-08-05 | $17.61 | cache’s last bar |
| 2026-08-10 | $18.03 | intraday, BPIQ |
[VERIFIED — data/prices/CGEM.json, fetched 2026-08-06.] The shares have roughly tripled off the
October 2025 low. Anyone buying into the Q4 2026 window is buying after that move, not before it.
C.5 Ownership and flow
| Holder type | Share | Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insider | Not readable from the connector | BPIQ insider_own returns 0.00425 — neither a usable fraction nor a percentage. Discarded. | BPIQ fetch_company_info |
| Institutional | Not fully readable; at least ~31.5% from eight hedge funds alone, plus a new passive >5% holder | BPIQ tute_own returns 1.06111 — discarded. Eight 13F funds hold 20,298,800 shares ≈ 31.5% of the 64.35M filed count. State Street crossed 5% per its 2026-08-07 Schedule 13G. | BPIQ fetch_company_hedge_fund_holdings; EDGAR submissions |
| Retail / other | Not established | Follows from the unusable fields above. Not estimated. | — |
| Short interest | 10,285,963 shares (16.0% of shares outstanding; ~23% of the ~44M float), days-to-cover 15.22 | FINRA settlement 2026-07-15, the authoritative count. BPIQ short_float 0.23064 now reads consistently as short ÷ float, corroborating its units for this ticker for the first time. | FINRA consolidatedShortInterest; EDGAR share count |
A dating correction to the 2026-08-05 analysis. BPIQ’s hedge-fund blocks are labelled by filing quarter, and 13F filings land ~45 days after the holdings quarter ends. The price implied by every fund’s value ÷ shares in the “2026Q2” block is $14.21 — the price cache’s close for 2026-03-31, not 2026-06-30 ($18.21). The 2026-08-05 company document read those labels at face value, so its “quarter-end implied price” table and its “$5.93 trough at 2025-12-31” claim were each off by one quarter: the $5.93 print belongs to 2025-09-30, and the trough the 13Fs saw was the early-October 2025 low. The corrected reading changes no conclusion — the shares still tripled — but it moves the fund positions one quarter staler than previously believed: the most recent 13F snapshot is holdings as of 2026-03-31.
Concentration. Ownership is concentrated and specialist. Eight funds held 20,298,800 shares as
of 2026-03-31 [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_hedge_fund_holdings, block labelled 2026Q2]. The two
largest are BIOIMPACT CAPITAL (7,648,268 shares, unchanged in all seventeen quarters on record) and
BVF (5,750,683 shares, unchanged since the block labelled 2024Q3, and separately disclosed at 9.99%
in a 2026-02-21 13G/A). BVF also holds Series A Convertible Preferred, ten-for-one convertible.
The preferred overhang is now quantified, which the 2026-08-05 sweep could not do: EDGAR XBRL
shows 204,209 preferred outstanding at 2026-06-30 — about 2.04M common-equivalent — after 277,780
converted during Q2 2026 [VERIFIED — EDGAR XBRL PreferredStockSharesOutstanding]. The economic
share count is therefore ~66.4M (64.35M common + 2.04M), no longer a floor with an unknown ceiling.
$356.0M of liquidity is about $5.36 per economic share [VERIFIED — arithmetic on filed counts].
Insider flow: still no discretionary buying, and the selling is mechanical. Unchanged since
2026-08-05, re-verified against 250 rows and the EDGAR Form 4 feed: no officer or director made a
discretionary open-market purchase in 2026; the 2026 acquisitions are employee-share-plan
settlements at $8.60 (Chief Financial Officer, Chief Legal Officer, 2026-06-30) and the Chief
Scientific Officer’s fixed monthly $4.30 option exercise, each followed by a same-size sale under a
disclosed Rule 10b5-1 plan (latest 2026-07-06 at $17.82). The February 2026 five-officer same-day
sales carry odd share counts — tax withholding on vesting, read as routine. The one real conviction
signal in the record remains LYNX1 Capital Management, a 10% owner, buying 1,874,057 shares
(~3% of the company) in the open market across seven sessions in October 2025 at $6.46–$8.86 —
within days of the actual 52-week low as the corrected dating above now shows [VERIFIED — BPIQ
fetch_company_insider_transactions].
No large holder is exiting. Comparing the blocks labelled 2026Q1 and 2026Q2 (holdings 2025-12-31 and 2026-03-31), seven of eight funds held exactly unchanged; OrbiMed trimmed 270,006 → 243,006 and ADAR1 held 50,000. Tang Capital’s position disappears after the 2025Q4-labelled block and Boxer Capital’s after 2025Q1-labelled — both before the rally on the corrected dating. What the 13Fs did in Q2 2026 itself is not yet visible.
C.6 Options chain and its readability
The chain cannot price this event, and it is further from being able to than it looks. Eight expiries and 308 contracts suggest depth; zero contracts traded across the entire chain on the read date, quoted spreads near the money are wider than the mid, and the only meaningful open interest sits below spot. No implied move is quoted from this chain anywhere in this repository; the bracket comes from the ticker’s own reaction history (C.7).
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Spot | $18.03 | 2026-08-10, intraday |
| Nearest listed strike to spot | $18.00 (also $17.00) on the 2026-12-18 expiry | Strikes exist; usable quotes do not |
| Expiry nearest the next catalyst | 2026-12-18 | Sits inside the guided “by end of 2026” window but expires 13 days before its end, and before the 2027-02-27 PDUFA — partially isolating this event |
| At-the-money straddle ÷ spot | $6.60 ÷ $18.03 = 36.6% at the $18 strike | Not usable. Call quoted $1.20/$5.50, put $1.00/$5.50 — both spreads are wider than their own mids. Reported to show the arithmetic, not as an implied move. |
| Front implied volatility | ~0.80 on the December near-money contracts | Plausible-looking level, but with zero volume and spreads this wide it is a model mark, not a traded price. 10 of 308 contracts chain-wide sit on the 0.01488 floor artifact and are treated as null. |
| Open interest at that strike | 8 calls / 9 puts at the December $18; 1 / 1 at the $17 | The only real open interest in the expiry is the $15 put (836) and $15 call (261), both below spot |
| Whole-chain open interest / day volume | 5,103 / 0 contracts | December expiry alone: 1,673 open interest, 0 volume |
| Liquidity confidence | Very low. The chain cannot price or bracket this event. |
C.7 Reaction to past catalysts
Intraday moves from fetch_company_historical_catalysts (19 rows, 16 distinct dates), each
cross-checked against the press feed for the same date. open_price_gap_percent is unreliable and
intra_day_price_change_percent is used throughout, per the documented field bug.
| Date | Event | Intraday move | Same-day press-feed check | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | CLN-049: positive end-of-Phase-1 FDA meeting, registrational Phase 2 supported | −0.85% | Company release plus “Why is Cullinan Therapeutics stock climbing today?” (Investing.com) — the two disagree | A regulatory alignment is not a data event. No move. |
| 2026-06-10 | Immunology Day: CLN-978 and velinotamig autoimmune data (three catalyst rows share this date and price) | −8.30% | Immunology Day release plus an 8-K. Nothing else. | Clean attribution, and it is a sell-the-news day: complete renal responses in lupus and a DAS28 remission in arthritis, and the shares fell 8%. The +31% the press wrote about accrued in the run-up to and rebound around the event, not on the day. |
| 2026-06-06 | EULAR congress: initial CLN-978 Phase 1 data | −3.21% | EULAR presentation release only | Same pattern four days earlier. |
| 2026-05-19 | CLN-049 receives FDA Orphan Drug Designation | −4.35% | Designation release plus a Stifel reiteration | A designation grants incentives, not evidence. No move. |
| 2026-04-27 | Zipalertinib: FDA accepts the NDA, PDUFA 2027-02-27 | −4.40% | NDA acceptance release only | The most important row for this analysis. Regulatory de-risking of the whole zipalertinib franchise was worth minus four percent. |
| 2025-12-08 | CLN-049 Phase 1 at ASH (two rows, AML and MDS) | +14.23% | ASH oral presentation release | The largest up-move in the record: a blood-cancer T cell engager. |
| 2025-12-01 | CLN-049 FDA Fast Track | −5.37% | Fast Track release | Designation, no move. |
| 2025-11-20 | Zipalertinib: rolling NDA initiated | −0.71% | Taiho/Cullinan joint release | Nothing. |
| 2025-09-09 | Zipalertinib: updated Phase 2b data at IASLC WCLC | +5.04% | Taiho/Cullinan release, “27.4% Response Rate” | A real zipalertinib efficacy update, worth five percent. |
| 2025-01-29 | Zipalertinib: REZILIENT1 Phase 2b meets its primary ORR endpoint | +12.85% | Taiho corporate release | The closest analogue this ticker has to the REZILIENT3 readout — worth +12.85%, at a share price around a third of today’s. |
| 2024-10-16 | CLN-978: IND cleared for subcutaneous lupus dosing | +10.73% | IND clearance release | The clearance that opened the autoimmune strategy. |
| 2024-05-23 | CLN-619 Phase 1 at ASCO | +5.64% | ASCO abstract | Program discontinued eighteen months later. |
| 2024-04-16 | CLN-978: lymphoma enrolment halted to focus on autoimmune disease | +18.87% | 8-K | The market paid nearly nineteen percent for a pivot away from oncology. The clearest statement of what this shareholder base wants. |
| 2024-03-01 | CLN-619: IND cleared in myeloma | +4.14% | Targeted Oncology | Program later discontinued. |
| 2023-06-08 | CLN-049: initial safety data at EHA | +4.06% | — | — |
| 2021-12-16 | CLN-081 (zipalertinib) Phase 1/2a: 39% confirmed response rate | +11.01% | Company release | Early zipalertinib efficacy, worth eleven percent. |
What the record says. Unchanged by the new row. First, zipalertinib efficacy readouts move this stock by roughly +5% to +13% (2021-12-16, 2025-01-29, 2025-09-09). Second, zipalertinib regulatory events do not move it at all, and the largest moves belong to other programs — the NDA acceptance was −4.40% while ASH T cell engager data were +14.23% and the oncology-to-autoimmune pivot +18.87%. The shareholder base is paying for the T cell engagers.
C.8 Company data-quality flags
- BPIQ 13F blocks are labelled by filing quarter, not holdings quarter. Every value ÷ shares
ratio in the “2026Q2” block equals the price cache’s 2026-03-31 close ($14.21), not the
2026-06-30 close ($18.21). The 2026-08-05 company document took the labels at face value and
mis-dated its whole implied-price series by one quarter, including calling $5.93 “the 2025-12-31
trough” when it is the 2025-09-30 close. Corrected throughout this document. Not one of the bugs
documented in
02-connectors.md. cashchanged definition between sweeps. $75.081M on 2026-08-05 (cash and equivalents only, ~5× understatement) versus $334.538M on 2026-08-10 (a broader line, ~6% understatement against the disclosed $356.0M). A field that silently changes composition cannot be trusted either way; the company’s own figure is used throughout.enterprise_valueis computed from a phantom cash figure. $1,089.651M − $807.898M implies $281.75M, matching neither the connector’s own cash field nor the disclosed total. Recomputed in C.4.market_capis computed on a stale share count — implies 60.4M shares against 64,354,694 filed at 2026-07-31. Recomputed in C.4 from the EDGAR XBRL count, the v5.6.0 company-tier row that exists for exactly this bug.tute_own(1.06111) andinsider_own(0.00425) remain unreadable as fractions or percentages. Both discarded; ownership is stated from the 13F count and the FINRA/EDGAR arithmetic.bpiq_pick_criteriais stale: it still says “around 79% of the way” up the 52-week range and enterprise value “about $665.2M”, both matching the 2026-08-05 sweep’s numbers, not its own current fields.- The historical-catalyst feed double- and triple-counts announcements: 19 rows, 16 distinct dates (2026-06-10 ×3, 2025-12-08 ×2, identical price fields within each set).
- The press feed contains aggregator-dated items (e.g. “52-week low at $9.49” dated 2026-01-03, irreconcilable with the cache’s $10.35 close on 2025-12-31 and $9.59–$12.46 December range). Aggregator dates are not primary evidence.
- Two responses exceeded the tool output limit (
fetch_company_insider_transactions, 57,256 characters;fetch_company_options_data, 50,757) and were read in full from the saved files withjqrather than sampled. fetch_company_earnings_transcriptreturned no content for the second consecutive sweep.- FINRA’s newest settlement (2026-07-31) is not yet published — expected lag, so the short count is 26 days old, predating the Q2 results.