Prediction tracker
Every locked call, and how it settles. Outcome accuracy and calibration are only meaningful once events resolve — until then this is the honest scoreboard: what was predicted, and what is still pending.
Locked
24
predictions
Settled
6
events resolved
Awaiting
18
pre-catalyst
Outcome accuracy
—
signal return
-16.5%
abstention value
-35.1%
range containment
50.0%
our Brier vs market
0.154 / 0.139
Predictions
| Ticker | Catalyst timing | Outcome | Stock | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALN s4v2-shigellosis Valneva SE | Mid-2026 placeholder — not a confirmed date | Miss 32%
[20–47]
| $4.60–$5.15 $5.80–$7.00 $5.36+1.2%
modelled
-2.3% to +5.5% vs spot across the 20– 47% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| LGVN laromestrocel-hlhs Longeveron Inc | 2026-08-12 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Miss 30%
[20–40]
| $0.22–$0.45 $1.20–$2.20 $0.74+0.6%
modelled
-17.8% to +19.1% vs spot across the 20– 40% band — the sign is not settled | Settled | miss — RVEF primary not met (p=0.8336); MACE and clinical composite not significant · -61.6% |
| MNOV mn-001-nafld-hypertriglyceridemia MediciNova, Inc. | 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Miss 15%
[8–28]
| $1.05–$1.50 $1.60–$2.15 $1.37+2.6%
modelled
-0.5% to +8.5% vs spot across the 8– 28% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| ARCT arct-810-otc-deficiency Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. | 2026-09-01 → 2026-11-30 confirmed readout window | Miss 38%
[25–52]
| $6.00–$7.20 $9.50–$13.00 $8.37+5.0%
modelled
-2.6% to +13.1% vs spot across the 25– 52% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| TYRA dabogratinib-ir-nmibc Tyra Biosciences | 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Positive 55%
[40–68]
| $14.00–$20.00 $30.00–$46.00 $28.55+5.9%
modelled
-5.8% to +16.0% vs spot across the 40– 68% band — the sign is not settled | Settled | miss — pooled 3-month CR 46% (12/26) vs the ≥60% bar; safety clean · -17.75% |
| IRON disc-3405-polycythemia-vera Disc Medicine, Inc. | 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Positive 78%
[65–87]
| $67.00–$74.00 $84.00–$91.00 $83.76+5.3%
modelled
+2.6% to +7.3% vs spot across the 65– 87% band — the sign is not settled | Settled | positive — 61.5% phlebotomy-free through 26 weeks (Cohort A, n=13), phlebotomies 4.0→0.6 (p<0.0001), well tolerated, advancing · -5.97% |
| EVMN evo756-atopic-dermatitis Evommune, Inc. | 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-30 confirmed readout window | Miss 30%
[20–45]
| $8.50–$11.00 $21.00–$30.00 $14.48+1.6%
modelled
-9.5% to +18.2% vs spot across the 20– 45% band — the sign is not settled | Settled | miss — primary endpoint (% change in EASI at Week 12) not met at any dose; EVO756 not advanced in AD · -15.58% |
| RARE gtx-102-angelman-syndrome Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | 2026-09-01 → 2026-11-10 confirmed readout window | Uncertain 50%
[35–65]
| $16.00–$21.00 $34.00–$42.00 $28.25+9.4%
modelled
-1.9% to +20.7% vs spot across the 35– 65% band — the sign is not settled | Settled | miss — ASPIRE missed its primary (Bayley-4 cognitive raw score) and key secondary (MDRI) endpoints vs sham · -42.4% |
| CNTB rademikibart-acute-asthma-exacerbation Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited | 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Miss 38%
[26–52]
| $0.95–$1.60 $3.60–$6.50 $2.71+16.3%
modelled
-3.2% to +39.0% vs spot across the 26– 52% band — the sign is not settled | Settled | miss — primary 28-day treatment failure not significant (p=0.153); FEV1 key secondary met (p=0.023) · -36% |
| CNTB rademikibart-acute-copd-exacerbation Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited | 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-31 confirmed readout window | Miss 30%
[20–42]
| $1.10–$2.10 $4.00–$7.00 $2.77+8.2%
modelled
-7.0% to +26.5% vs spot across the 20– 42% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| CUE cue-221-csu Cue Biopharma, Inc. | 2026-09-15 → 2026-12-15 confirmed readout window | Positive 72%
[58–83]
| $9.00–$16.00 $24.00–$46.00 $28.70+10.0%
modelled
-2.1% to +19.4% vs spot across the 58– 83% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| TLSA foralumab-na-spms Tiziana Life Sciences | 2026-09-15 → 2026-11-30 confirmed readout window | Miss 35%
[20–52]
| $0.30–$0.55 $1.80–$3.00 $1.12+11.6%
modelled
-18.0% to +45.2% vs spot across the 20– 52% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| DWTX halneuron-cinp Dogwood Therapeutics, Inc. | 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31 confirmed readout window | Miss 38%
[26–49]
| $0.28–$1.28 $3.28–$9.50 $2.91+50.5%
modelled
+15.7% to +82.4% vs spot across the 26– 49% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| IVA lanifibranor-mash Inventiva S.A. | 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31 confirmed readout window | Positive 55%
[40–70]
| $1.00–$2.00 $7.00–$13.00 $6.18+30.9%
modelled
+3.8% to +57.8% vs spot across the 40– 70% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| GNLX olvi-vec-platinum-resistant-ovarian Genelux Corporation | 2026-10-01 → 2027-04-30 confirmed readout window | Uncertain 35%
[20–55]
| $0.45–$1.30 $6.00–$14.00 $4.07+49.6%
modelled
-0.7% to +116.7% vs spot across the 20– 55% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| RAPP rap-219-bipolar-mania Rapport Therapeutics, Inc. | 2026-10-01 → 2026-11-30 confirmed readout window | Miss 35%
[22–48]
| $37.00–$45.00 $56.00–$68.00 $48.35-1.2%
modelled
-6.8% to +4.4% vs spot across the 22– 48% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| CGEM zipalertinib-1l-egfr-ex20ins-nsclc Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc. | 2026-10-01 → 2027-03-31 confirmed readout window | Positive 78%
[65–88]
| $13.50–$16.25 $19.50–$24.00 $20.24+12.2%
modelled
+7.3% to +16.1% vs spot across the 65– 88% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| IMMP efti-pembrolizumab-soft-tissue-sarcoma Immutep Limited | 2026-10-19 → 2026-10-19 confirmed readout window | Positive 85%
[72–92]
| $0.28–$0.36 $0.36–$0.46 $0.40-0.9%
modelled
-3.8% to +0.7% vs spot across the 72– 92% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| CMPX tovecimig-biliary-tract-cancer Compass Therapeutics, Inc. | 2026-10-23 → 2026-10-27 confirmed readout window | Positive 55%
[42–68]
| $1.65–$2.15 $2.70–$3.30 $2.51+1.0%
modelled
-4.8% to +6.8% vs spot across the 42– 68% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| ABOS sabirnetug-alzheimers Acumen Pharmaceuticals | 2026-11-15 → 2027-01-31 confirmed readout window | Miss 35%
[25–48]
| $0.55–$1.20 $4.50–$11.00 $3.28+43.9%
modelled
+13.8% to +83.1% vs spot across the 25– 48% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| IMUX vidofludimus-relapsing-ms Immunic, Inc. | 2026-12-01 → 2027-03-31 confirmed readout window | Positive 60%
[50–70]
| $2.40–$3.80 $17.00–$27.00 $14.44+2.4%
modelled
-11.0% to +15.8% vs spot across the 50– 70% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| ZNTL azenosertib-cyclin-e1-proc Zentalis Pharmaceuticals | 2027-01-01 → 2027-06-30 confirmed readout window | Positive 55%
[42–68]
| $1.00–$2.30 $6.50–$10.00 $5.28+26.9%
modelled
+6.3% to +47.5% vs spot across the 42– 68% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| RARE dtx301-otc-deficiency Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | 2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30 confirmed readout window | Positive 62%
[48–75]
| $22.00–$27.00 $27.00–$33.00 $27.91+4.6%
modelled
+1.8% to +7.3% vs spot across the 48– 75% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
| OLMA palazestrant-er-positive-mbc Olema Pharmaceuticals | 2027-01-01 → 2027-06-30 confirmed readout window | Uncertain 40%
[30–52]
| $4.50–$8.50 $15.50–$32.00 $13.40+28.5%
modelled
+11.9% to +48.3% vs spot across the 30– 52% band — the sign is not settled | Awaiting | pending |
Calibration
Reliability of outcome confidence — populates as events settle
Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches reality — do events called with medium confidence actually happen about as often as that implies?
It populates as predictions settle. 6 of 24 settled so far — the dashed line is perfect calibration; points will plot predicted vs. realized frequency once there is enough history to bin.