joris

Prediction tracker

Every locked call, and how it settles. Outcome accuracy and calibration are only meaningful once events resolve — until then this is the honest scoreboard: what was predicted, and what is still pending.

Locked

2

predictions

Settled

0

events resolved

Awaiting

2

pre-catalyst

Outcome accuracy

n/a

needs settled data

Predictions

Ticker Catalyst date Outcome Stock Status Actual
ABOS Acumen Pharmaceuticals 2026-Q4 (Late 2026; primary completion Oct 2026)
Miss Low
No edge Awaiting pending
ZNTL Zentalis Pharmaceuticals 2026-Q4 (YE 2026; primary completion Dec 1 2026)
Positive Low–medium
No edge Awaiting pending

Calibration

Reliability of outcome confidence — populates as events settle

0 0 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.75 1 1 Predicted probability Observed frequency Awaiting settled outcomes

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches reality — do events called with medium confidence actually happen about as often as that implies?

It populates as predictions settle. 0 of 2 settled so far — the dashed line is perfect calibration; points will plot predicted vs. realized frequency once there is enough history to bin.