joris
Overview

OLMA

Cleared

Olema Pharmaceuticals

8 programs · 1 analysed

Company sweep 2026-08-12 Framework v5.6.1

Pipeline

Every program the data feed returns, including discontinued ones

Program BPIQ id Stage & event Catalyst (as disclosed) Analysed Materiality
OP-1250 (palazestrant) (CER antagonist) Metastatic breast cancer, Cancer 15137 Phase 3 Data readout Q1 2027 period placeholder — not a day Yes Dominant. The only row with has_catalyst true, the sole registrational readout, and the stock fell 12.6% on the day its date slipped one quarter. Every other palazestrant row is either evidence feeding into it or downstream of it.
OP-1250 (palazestrant) +palbociclib Metastatic breast cancer, Breast cancer, Cancer 16994 Phase 1/2 Update no catalyst No Not assessed - program not analysed. NCT05266105, n=60, ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING; no new data or timing.
OP-1250 (palazestrant) + ribociclib or alpelisib Metastatic breast cancer 16995 Phase 1/2 Update no catalyst No Not assessed - program not analysed. Holds the ribociclib combination data OPERA-02 rests on; no future catalyst of its own.
OP-1250 (palazestrant) + everolimus Metastatic breast cancer, Breast cancer, Cancer 18171 Phase 1/2 Data readout no catalyst No Not assessed - program not analysed. An arm of OP-1250-003; 'PR No update' in the 2026-08-10 note.
OP-3136 Cancer, ER+/HER2- breast cancer 18342 Phase 1 Update no catalyst No Not assessed - program not analysed. The second molecule, a KAT6 inhibitor (Aurigene collaboration: $8M upfront, up to $60M development and $370M commercial milestones, mid-single to low-double-digit royalties). Initial Phase 1 data at ASCO 2026-05-30: no DLTs to 45 mg, 3 partial responses among 19 evaluable. The reason Olema is not strictly single-asset.
Palazestrant (OP-1250) + ribociclib ER+/HER2- breast cancer, Cancer 18636 Phase 3 Update no catalyst No Not assessed - program not analysed. OPERA-02 (NCT07085767): 1,000 patients, double-blind, first line, enrolment advancing, CT.gov primary completion 2028-12. Materially exposed to 15137: same molecule, same disease.
Palazestrant + Atirmociclib ER+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer 19216 Phase 1/2 Update no catalyst No Not assessed - program not analysed. Pfizer collaboration; the Ph1b/2 study completed enrollment per the 2026-08-10 note. Commercially immaterial today.
OP-3136 + Nubeqa/Darolutamide (KAT6/AR Inhibitors) Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer 20488 Phase 1/2 Initiation no catalyst No Not assessed - program not analysed. Bayer collaboration; enrolment starts Q4 2026 per the 2026-08-10 note. A trial start, not a readout.

Attribution and cadence

Whether each program's own catalyst can be attributed to it alone, and whether it is due for a refresh

Clean palazestrant (OP-1250)— no other has_catalyst program on this ticker lands within 6 months.

Readout window opens 2027-01-01 — covered gates T-5.

Locked stock calls

Each call is stamped with the period it applies to, so concurrent calls read as event-specific

  1. 2026-08-12 → 2027-05-15 · The guided Q1 2027 topline window (to 2027-03-31) plus about six weeks for the reaction to settle. No listed option expiry spans the window: 2027-01-15 covers only its first two weeks and the next is 2028-01-21 (company.md C.6).

    OPERA-01 Phase 3 topline (dual primary: BICR-assessed progression-free survival in ESR1-mutation-detected and ESR1-mutation-not-detected populations, assessed separately)

Price history

Daily closes and volume, with the analysis cadence marked against them

palazestrant (OP-1250) readout window: 2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30, likeliest 2027-02-15 52-week high $36.26 52-week low $5.34 OLMA close $11.13 on 2026-08-19 $36.26 $11.13 $5.34 Weekly total volume 366,500 · week ending 2021-08-06 Weekly total volume 1,159,200 · week ending 2021-08-13 Weekly total volume 1,006,900 · week ending 2021-08-20 Weekly total volume 1,576,000 · week ending 2021-08-27 Weekly total volume 1,386,800 · week ending 2021-09-03 Weekly total volume 1,160,800 · week ending 2021-09-10 Weekly total volume 3,724,200 · week ending 2021-09-17 Weekly total volume 1,620,600 · week ending 2021-09-24 Weekly total volume 1,365,400 · week ending 2021-10-01 Weekly total volume 1,092,200 · week ending 2021-10-08 Weekly total volume 1,294,100 · week ending 2021-10-15 Weekly total volume 3,019,900 · week ending 2021-10-22 Weekly total volume 1,754,400 · week ending 2021-10-29 Weekly total volume 1,511,900 · week ending 2021-11-05 Weekly total volume 1,353,000 · week ending 2021-11-12 Weekly total volume 3,202,600 · week ending 2021-11-19 Weekly total volume 1,905,800 · week ending 2021-11-26 Weekly total volume 22,917,200 · week ending 2021-12-03 Weekly total volume 4,930,700 · week ending 2021-12-10 Weekly total volume 3,966,900 · week ending 2021-12-17 Weekly total volume 2,415,400 · week ending 2021-12-23 Weekly total volume 1,452,300 · week ending 2021-12-31 Weekly total volume 2,738,100 · week ending 2022-01-07 Weekly total volume 2,172,500 · week ending 2022-01-14 Weekly total volume 1,307,900 · week ending 2022-01-21 Weekly total volume 2,132,500 · week ending 2022-01-28 Weekly total volume 3,490,300 · week ending 2022-02-04 Weekly total volume 2,182,200 · week ending 2022-02-11 Weekly total volume 1,732,000 · week ending 2022-02-18 Weekly total volume 1,515,700 · week ending 2022-02-25 Weekly total volume 2,329,800 · week ending 2022-03-04 Weekly total volume 1,371,100 · week ending 2022-03-11 Weekly total volume 3,471,000 · week ending 2022-03-18 Weekly total volume 1,505,700 · week ending 2022-03-25 Weekly total volume 1,289,100 · week ending 2022-04-01 Weekly total volume 2,131,800 · week ending 2022-04-08 Weekly total volume 1,045,600 · week ending 2022-04-14 Weekly total volume 2,358,400 · week ending 2022-04-22 Weekly total volume 1,287,000 · week ending 2022-04-29 Weekly total volume 1,149,100 · week ending 2022-05-06 Weekly total volume 2,335,200 · week ending 2022-05-13 Weekly total volume 2,224,200 · week ending 2022-05-20 Weekly total volume 2,801,300 · week ending 2022-05-27 Weekly total volume 1,628,000 · week ending 2022-06-03 Weekly total volume 4,354,400 · week ending 2022-06-10 Weekly total volume 2,376,500 · week ending 2022-06-17 Weekly total volume 4,432,200 · week ending 2022-06-24 Weekly total volume 1,485,200 · week ending 2022-07-01 Weekly total volume 1,106,000 · week ending 2022-07-08 Weekly total volume 1,001,200 · week ending 2022-07-15 Weekly total volume 8,216,500 · week ending 2022-07-22 Weekly total volume 1,112,500 · week ending 2022-07-29 Weekly total volume 930,600 · week ending 2022-08-05 Weekly total volume 2,517,400 · week ending 2022-08-12 Weekly total volume 1,139,700 · week ending 2022-08-19 Weekly total volume 779,500 · week ending 2022-08-26 Weekly total volume 777,700 · week ending 2022-09-02 Weekly total volume 730,300 · week ending 2022-09-09 Weekly total volume 1,069,000 · week ending 2022-09-16 Weekly total volume 1,486,300 · week ending 2022-09-23 Weekly total volume 324,900 · week ending 2022-09-30 Weekly total volume 1,660,700 · week ending 2022-10-07 Weekly total volume 281,800 · week ending 2022-10-14 Weekly total volume 724,400 · week ending 2022-10-21 Weekly total volume 733,400 · week ending 2022-10-28 Weekly total volume 501,100 · week ending 2022-11-04 Weekly total volume 533,000 · week ending 2022-11-11 Weekly total volume 534,000 · week ending 2022-11-18 Weekly total volume 832,200 · week ending 2022-11-25 Weekly total volume 284,800 · week ending 2022-12-02 Weekly total volume 534,700 · week ending 2022-12-09 Weekly total volume 763,100 · week ending 2022-12-16 Weekly total volume 571,100 · week ending 2022-12-23 Weekly total volume 543,100 · week ending 2022-12-30 Weekly total volume 408,100 · week ending 2023-01-06 Weekly total volume 1,459,700 · week ending 2023-01-13 Weekly total volume 834,300 · week ending 2023-01-20 Weekly total volume 1,289,500 · week ending 2023-01-27 Weekly total volume 769,500 · week ending 2023-02-03 Weekly total volume 1,385,700 · week ending 2023-02-10 Weekly total volume 436,300 · week ending 2023-02-17 Weekly total volume 208,200 · week ending 2023-02-24 Weekly total volume 283,700 · week ending 2023-03-03 Weekly total volume 457,000 · week ending 2023-03-10 Weekly total volume 412,900 · week ending 2023-03-17 Weekly total volume 517,800 · week ending 2023-03-24 Weekly total volume 1,114,000 · week ending 2023-03-31 Weekly total volume 1,948,800 · week ending 2023-04-06 Weekly total volume 1,204,700 · week ending 2023-04-14 Weekly total volume 683,800 · week ending 2023-04-21 Weekly total volume 512,600 · week ending 2023-04-28 Weekly total volume 1,495,400 · week ending 2023-05-05 Weekly total volume 916,600 · week ending 2023-05-12 Weekly total volume 666,900 · week ending 2023-05-19 Weekly total volume 1,224,500 · week ending 2023-05-26 Weekly total volume 547,800 · week ending 2023-06-02 Weekly total volume 1,341,700 · week ending 2023-06-09 Weekly total volume 3,189,900 · week ending 2023-06-16 Weekly total volume 5,255,100 · week ending 2023-06-23 Weekly total volume 3,267,500 · week ending 2023-06-30 Weekly total volume 1,412,100 · week ending 2023-07-07 Weekly total volume 1,544,500 · week ending 2023-07-14 Weekly total volume 1,569,700 · week ending 2023-07-21 Weekly total volume 706,200 · week ending 2023-07-28 Weekly total volume 932,700 · week ending 2023-08-04 Weekly total volume 1,602,600 · week ending 2023-08-11 Weekly total volume 1,071,200 · week ending 2023-08-18 Weekly total volume 621,100 · week ending 2023-08-25 Weekly total volume 797,100 · week ending 2023-09-01 Weekly total volume 1,880,400 · week ending 2023-09-08 Weekly total volume 2,171,400 · week ending 2023-09-15 Weekly total volume 1,128,900 · week ending 2023-09-22 Weekly total volume 2,202,300 · week ending 2023-09-29 Weekly total volume 1,571,000 · week ending 2023-10-06 Weekly total volume 1,281,700 · week ending 2023-10-13 Weekly total volume 1,825,000 · week ending 2023-10-20 Weekly total volume 2,487,800 · week ending 2023-10-27 Weekly total volume 2,690,600 · week ending 2023-11-03 Weekly total volume 2,717,200 · week ending 2023-11-10 Weekly total volume 2,928,200 · week ending 2023-11-17 Weekly total volume 2,936,300 · week ending 2023-11-24 Weekly total volume 7,213,600 · week ending 2023-12-01 Weekly total volume 9,905,700 · week ending 2023-12-08 Weekly total volume 7,027,600 · week ending 2023-12-15 Weekly total volume 5,026,200 · week ending 2023-12-22 Weekly total volume 2,279,700 · week ending 2023-12-29 Weekly total volume 2,724,000 · week ending 2024-01-05 Weekly total volume 3,955,800 · week ending 2024-01-12 Weekly total volume 1,507,100 · week ending 2024-01-19 Weekly total volume 3,450,800 · week ending 2024-01-26 Weekly total volume 5,101,200 · week ending 2024-02-02 Weekly total volume 2,525,500 · week ending 2024-02-09 Weekly total volume 3,315,800 · week ending 2024-02-16 Weekly total volume 2,747,900 · week ending 2024-02-23 Weekly total volume 3,608,400 · week ending 2024-03-01 Weekly total volume 2,729,000 · week ending 2024-03-08 Weekly total volume 9,604,500 · week ending 2024-03-15 Weekly total volume 6,216,600 · week ending 2024-03-22 Weekly total volume 2,049,600 · week ending 2024-03-28 Weekly total volume 3,945,500 · week ending 2024-04-05 Weekly total volume 3,353,400 · week ending 2024-04-12 Weekly total volume 3,019,800 · week ending 2024-04-19 Weekly total volume 3,644,200 · week ending 2024-04-26 Weekly total volume 3,722,800 · week ending 2024-05-03 Weekly total volume 3,439,500 · week ending 2024-05-10 Weekly total volume 4,721,300 · week ending 2024-05-17 Weekly total volume 2,834,100 · week ending 2024-05-24 Weekly total volume 4,046,000 · week ending 2024-05-31 Weekly total volume 14,469,800 · week ending 2024-06-07 Weekly total volume 4,685,700 · week ending 2024-06-14 Weekly total volume 4,815,900 · week ending 2024-06-21 Weekly total volume 4,558,600 · week ending 2024-06-28 Weekly total volume 2,092,200 · week ending 2024-07-05 Weekly total volume 2,925,800 · week ending 2024-07-12 Weekly total volume 3,915,800 · week ending 2024-07-19 Weekly total volume 2,829,700 · week ending 2024-07-26 Weekly total volume 4,401,700 · week ending 2024-08-02 Weekly total volume 3,838,000 · week ending 2024-08-09 Weekly total volume 2,328,800 · week ending 2024-08-16 Weekly total volume 3,875,500 · week ending 2024-08-23 Weekly total volume 1,725,000 · week ending 2024-08-30 Weekly total volume 2,124,700 · week ending 2024-09-06 Weekly total volume 1,774,200 · week ending 2024-09-13 Weekly total volume 4,225,000 · week ending 2024-09-20 Weekly total volume 3,057,700 · week ending 2024-09-27 Weekly total volume 1,977,500 · week ending 2024-10-04 Weekly total volume 1,737,600 · week ending 2024-10-11 Weekly total volume 1,378,800 · week ending 2024-10-18 Weekly total volume 1,688,900 · week ending 2024-10-25 Weekly total volume 1,567,400 · week ending 2024-11-01 Weekly total volume 2,035,000 · week ending 2024-11-08 Weekly total volume 3,062,400 · week ending 2024-11-15 Weekly total volume 4,049,800 · week ending 2024-11-22 Weekly total volume 2,136,200 · week ending 2024-11-29 Weekly total volume 3,472,000 · week ending 2024-12-06 Weekly total volume 9,528,600 · week ending 2024-12-13 Weekly total volume 6,966,100 · week ending 2024-12-20 Weekly total volume 2,536,200 · week ending 2024-12-27 Weekly total volume 6,073,400 · week ending 2025-01-03 Weekly total volume 6,801,100 · week ending 2025-01-10 Weekly total volume 6,633,600 · week ending 2025-01-17 Weekly total volume 2,847,300 · week ending 2025-01-24 Weekly total volume 8,108,300 · week ending 2025-01-31 Weekly total volume 4,524,900 · week ending 2025-02-07 Weekly total volume 4,561,600 · week ending 2025-02-14 Weekly total volume 2,171,300 · week ending 2025-02-21 Weekly total volume 4,663,600 · week ending 2025-02-28 Weekly total volume 4,389,700 · week ending 2025-03-07 Weekly total volume 3,490,100 · week ending 2025-03-14 Weekly total volume 5,358,000 · week ending 2025-03-21 Weekly total volume 5,554,600 · week ending 2025-03-28 Weekly total volume 7,411,000 · week ending 2025-04-04 Weekly total volume 6,362,100 · week ending 2025-04-11 Weekly total volume 2,861,300 · week ending 2025-04-17 Weekly total volume 4,520,900 · week ending 2025-04-25 Weekly total volume 3,674,900 · week ending 2025-05-02 Weekly total volume 5,156,100 · week ending 2025-05-09 Weekly total volume 2,953,800 · week ending 2025-05-16 Weekly total volume 2,466,700 · week ending 2025-05-23 Weekly total volume 2,200,500 · week ending 2025-05-30 Weekly total volume 6,285,200 · week ending 2025-06-06 Weekly total volume 4,280,500 · week ending 2025-06-13 Weekly total volume 3,698,700 · week ending 2025-06-20 Weekly total volume 6,942,100 · week ending 2025-06-27 Weekly total volume 2,492,500 · week ending 2025-07-03 Weekly total volume 2,155,400 · week ending 2025-07-11 Weekly total volume 1,650,100 · week ending 2025-07-18 Weekly total volume 2,053,200 · week ending 2025-07-25 Weekly total volume 2,906,500 · week ending 2025-08-01 Weekly total volume 2,658,600 · week ending 2025-08-08 Weekly total volume 3,148,900 · week ending 2025-08-15 Weekly total volume 1,936,200 · week ending 2025-08-22 Weekly total volume 1,267,700 · week ending 2025-08-29 Weekly total volume 10,117,600 · week ending 2025-09-05 Weekly total volume 6,353,700 · week ending 2025-09-12 Weekly total volume 5,626,900 · week ending 2025-09-19 Weekly total volume 5,144,300 · week ending 2025-09-26 Weekly total volume 7,429,000 · week ending 2025-10-03 Weekly total volume 5,867,100 · week ending 2025-10-10 Weekly total volume 7,418,500 · week ending 2025-10-17 Weekly total volume 10,189,200 · week ending 2025-10-24 Weekly total volume 5,353,800 · week ending 2025-10-31 Weekly total volume 4,535,600 · week ending 2025-11-07 Weekly total volume 4,952,200 · week ending 2025-11-14 Weekly total volume 124,260,500 · week ending 2025-11-21 Weekly total volume 14,383,300 · week ending 2025-11-28 Weekly total volume 12,835,300 · week ending 2025-12-05 Weekly total volume 19,506,200 · week ending 2025-12-12 Weekly total volume 17,287,800 · week ending 2025-12-19 Weekly total volume 5,684,400 · week ending 2025-12-26 Weekly total volume 3,667,500 · week ending 2026-01-02 Weekly total volume 8,237,000 · week ending 2026-01-09 Weekly total volume 6,407,000 · week ending 2026-01-16 Weekly total volume 3,726,900 · week ending 2026-01-23 Weekly total volume 4,718,700 · week ending 2026-01-30 Weekly total volume 9,082,800 · week ending 2026-02-06 Weekly total volume 6,906,800 · week ending 2026-02-13 Weekly total volume 4,735,700 · week ending 2026-02-20 Weekly total volume 6,192,700 · week ending 2026-02-27 Weekly total volume 6,107,400 · week ending 2026-03-06 Weekly total volume 22,539,000 · week ending 2026-03-13 Weekly total volume 15,010,200 · week ending 2026-03-20 Weekly total volume 6,247,300 · week ending 2026-03-27 Weekly total volume 4,379,400 · week ending 2026-04-02 Weekly total volume 4,661,800 · week ending 2026-04-10 Weekly total volume 3,697,100 · week ending 2026-04-17 Weekly total volume 4,288,600 · week ending 2026-04-24 Weekly total volume 3,876,700 · week ending 2026-05-01 Weekly total volume 4,199,500 · week ending 2026-05-08 Weekly total volume 7,589,000 · week ending 2026-05-15 Weekly total volume 5,583,600 · week ending 2026-05-22 Weekly total volume 4,818,900 · week ending 2026-05-29 Weekly total volume 9,118,100 · week ending 2026-06-05 Weekly total volume 7,759,200 · week ending 2026-06-12 Weekly total volume 7,131,900 · week ending 2026-06-18 Weekly total volume 15,360,400 · week ending 2026-06-26 Weekly total volume 7,641,500 · week ending 2026-07-02 Weekly total volume 6,801,000 · week ending 2026-07-10 Weekly total volume 5,666,300 · week ending 2026-07-17 Weekly total volume 3,637,000 · week ending 2026-07-24 Weekly total volume 4,349,300 · week ending 2026-07-31 Weekly total volume 4,208,700 · week ending 2026-08-07 Weekly total volume 7,011,182 · week ending 2026-08-14 Weekly total volume 2,184,988 · week ending 2026-08-19 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Prediction locked 2026-08-04 · close $11.76 Prediction locked 2026-08-12 · close $10.44
Yahoo Finance · daily closes · cached 2026-08-19 · readout window 2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30 View live chart

Market snapshot

Valuation and balance sheet at the sweep date

Price

$10.43

USD

Cash

$461M

as of 2026-06-30

Runway

No company runway date; the Q2 10-Q repeats the 12-month going-concern floor. Recomputed: $461.1M / $14.7M ~ 31 months (into ~2029-01) on cash decline, / $21.1M ~ 22 months (into ~2028-04) on net loss. The Q1 2027 readout is comfortably funded either way.

management guide

Price Note
BPIQ last_price read 2026-08-12; it is the 2026-08-11 close, the first session after the Q1 2027 slip (previous close 11.94 = 2026-08-10). The committed price cache's 2026-08-11 bar carries a null close with volume 2,670,582 present, so cache-derived figures still resolve to the pre-slip 11.94; flagged in data_quality_flags.
Market Cap Mm As Reported
$1.04B
Market Cap Mm Recomputed Common
$913M
Market Cap Mm Economic
$1.05B
Ev Mm As Reported
$542M
Ev Mm Recomputed
$620M
Ev Note
BPIQ market cap is the stale 87.35M count times the previous close (the documented bug, both halves at once). Recomputed: 101,091,756 economic shares (87,497,607 EDGAR-filed common at 2026-08-06 + 13,594,149 pre-funded warrants at $0.0001) x $10.43 = $1,054.4M, less ~$435M modelled cash today, before the undisclosed drawn loan balance.
Shares Outstanding Mm
$87M
Shares Outstanding As Of
2026-08-06
Shares Outstanding Source
EDGAR XBRL companyconcept dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding, filed 2026-08-10
Prefunded Warrants Mm
$14M
Prefunded Warrant Strike
0
Economic Shares Mm
$101M
Weighted Average Shares Q2 2026 Mm
$104M
Share Count Note
Q2 2026 weighted-average 104,453,732 exceeds the 101,091,756 economic shares by ~3.4M (was 1.86M at the prior sweep). Not resolved by the 10-Q warrant table, which still sums to 13,594,149. Economic count approximate to within ~3%.
Cash Mm Modelled Today
~430-440 (modelled; six weeks off the 2026-06-30 balance)
Monthly Burn Mm Net Loss
$21M
Monthly Burn Mm Opex
$22M
Monthly Burn Mm Cash Decline
$15M
Burn Note
Q2 2026 net loss $63.2M = $21.1M/mo; opex (R&D $57.8M + G&A $9.4M) = $22.4M/mo; actual decline in cash+securities ($505.3M -> $461.1M, no disclosed financing inflow in Q2) = $14.7M/mo. The gap is non-cash stock compensation and interest income. BPIQ monthly_burn $15.33M is stale (2026-03-31) but close to the cash-decline figure.
Debt
A drawn borrowing exists under the Loan Agreement (Q2 10-Q: carrying amount approximated fair value at 2026-06-30, variable rate). Amount not extracted this sweep.
Fifty Two Week High
$36.26
Fifty Two Week Low
$4.91
Fifty Two Week As Of
2026-08-11
Fifty Two Week Note
Derived from data/prices/OLMA.json with lib/prices.mjs range52w, asOf 2026-08-11; BPIQ independently reports 4.91. The August 2025 low of 4.47 has rolled out of the window.
Position In Range On Last
17.6%
Position In Range On Cache Close
22.4%
Bpiq Field Position
22.4%
Multiple Off Low
$2.12
Pct Below High
-71.2%

Source: BPIQ fetch_company_info 2026-08-12; Olema Q2 2026 results release 2026-08-10; Olema Q2 2026 10-Q filed 2026-08-10; EDGAR XBRL; data/prices/OLMA.json

Ownership and flow

Who holds it, and who has been buying

Insider Own Pct
1.8%
Insider Own Note
BPIQ insider_own 0.01767, units unlabelled; read as a fraction.
Tute Own Note
BPIQ tute_own reads 1.18488 - junk, rejected under rule 6. Press feed's last usable figure ~63% (2026-02-05); disclosures since add FMR 13.8% (13G/A 2026-08-06), BlackRock 6.24M (13G/A 2026-07-29), Janus Henderson 8.2%, Bain 8.2%, Invus 4.5%.
Short Shares
15,963,215
Short Settlement Date
2026-07-31
Short Pct Of Shares Outstanding
18.2%
Short Days To Cover
18.21
Short Float Pct Bpiq
23.8%
Short Note
FINRA consolidatedShortInterest 2026-07-31 settlement / EDGAR-filed 87,497,607 shares = 18.24% of shares outstanding; BPIQ short_float 0.23835 (fraction of float, 2026-07-15 stamp) implies a float near 63M. The short count rose five consecutive settlements: 11.93M -> 12.84M -> 14.03M -> 15.10M -> 15.96M (2026-05-29 to 2026-07-31).
Insider Flow
Still zero open-market purchases by any officer or director in the 250-row window (2023-02-01 to 2026-07-24). New since 2026-08-04: director Cyrus Harmon sold 12,500 shares at $11.579 (2026-07-23) and 12,500 at $11.714 (2026-07-24), matching EDGAR Forms 144 and the 2026-07-27 Form 4; routine annual director option grants (29,500 each) on 2026-06-18. The Dec 2025 - Mar 2026 exercise-and-sell wave (~1.47M shares at $23-$31) stands as previously recorded.
Hedge Funds
Read with the v5.6.1 one-quarter label shift: the '2026Q2' 13F block holds 2026-03-31 positions (value/shares = $14.91, the 2026-03-31 close). Six funds, 20.4M shares at Q1-end: Paradigm 8.02M (up from 7.54M), BVF 5.30M (unchanged six quarters), Logos 3.21M, RA Capital 2.60M, Vivo 0.67M (halved), Ikarian 0.60M. Perceptive and ADAR1 exited during Q1 2026.
Large Holders
FMR 13.8% (13G/A 2026-08-06); BlackRock 6.24M (13G/A 2026-07-29); Janus Henderson 8.2%; Bain Capital 8.2% incl. pre-funded warrant; Invus 4.5%; plus July-August 13F additions from Dimensional, Defilade, SEB, Siren, Jennison.
Management Change
COO/CFO departed January 2026, CEO holding the role on an interim basis; no permanent replacement announced through 2026-08-12.

Options chain

Whether the chain can price an event at all

Implied Move
bracket of roughly 35% to 75% around the readout; no point estimate
Expiries Returned
2026-08-21, 2026-09-18, 2026-10-16, 2026-12-18, 2027-01-15, 2028-01-21
Nearest Strike To Spot
$10.00
Expiry Note
NO listed expiry spans the guided Q1 2027 window. 2027-01-15 covers only its first two weeks; 2026-12-18 now expires before the window opens; the next expiry past the window is 2028-01-21. The chain's open interest still sits in December 2026 strikes positioned for the old 'fall 2026' date (5,853 puts at $13, 1,280 puts at $20, 721 calls at $22).
Straddle Over Spot Bracket
0.30 (bid) to 0.71 (ask), 0.51 at mid, on the $10 January 2027 strike
Front Iv At Near Money Strikes
0.96 to 1.20 (Jan 2027: $10C 1.166, $11C 1.195, $12C 1.127, $13P 1.000)
Iv Artifact Check
Off the BPIQ floor (~0.01488) and ceiling (~9.99512) artifacts at the near-money January strikes; usable. IV ~1.1 over 156 days to 2027-01-15 implies a one-standard-deviation move of ~72%.
Open Interest At Strike
190 calls / 29 puts at the January 2027 $10 strike
Liquidity Confidence
LOW

Past catalyst reactions

Cross-checked against the press feed

Summary
Four rows in the BPIQ historical-catalyst feed (2023-10-22 to 2026-05-21); largest own-data move +11.57% (2024-12-09 OP-3136 IND clearance). New this sweep, outside the feed: -12.6% close-to-close on 2026-08-11 ($11.94 -> $10.43, 2.67M shares, ~3.5x recent volume) on the Q2 2026 release that completed OPERA-01 enrollment and slipped topline from 'fall 2026' to Q1 2027.
Critical Limit
Olema has never reported a registrational efficacy result; no row shows how this equity trades on one. The 2026-08-11 print is the first meaningfully sized move on Olema's own news - a timing slip with no efficacy content cost 12.6%.
Missing From Feed
Both Roche-driven moves (2025-11-18 lidERA +130% to +197%; 2026-03-09 persevERA -33.4% over four weeks) and the 2026-08-11 slip reaction are absent from the feed. This stock trades as a proxy for the oral-SERD class.
Upcoming Class Events
FDA decisions on Roche's giredestrant - adjuvant by 2026-11-30 (Priority Review) and +everolimus in ESR1-mutant advanced disease by 2026-12-18 - land inside the pre-readout window. Camizestrant's SERENA-6 PDUFA was extended after an April 2026 ODAC that did not reach a majority in favor.
Confounders
As previously recorded: 2024-12-10 carries the prior day's IND news; the March 2026 decline mixes persevERA, Q4 results, a new shelf and a plaintiff-firm release.

Company data-quality flags

  • The price cache's 2026-08-11 bar has a NULL close with real volume (2,670,582) - the -12.6% slip-reaction session itself. Cache-derived figures (52-week position, run-up entry) still resolve to the pre-slip 11.94 close of 2026-08-10; this sweep's spot of 10.43 comes from BPIQ last_price and is flagged wherever used.
  • BPIQ market_cap = stale 87.35M share count x previous close 11.94 - both documented bug families at once. Recomputed from the EDGAR-filed 87,497,607 shares.
  • BPIQ max_52_week_position 0.22425 reproduces the previous-close bug exactly ((11.94-4.91)/(36.259-4.91)); correct on the last price is 17.6%.
  • BPIQ tute_own 1.18488 is junk, rejected under rule 6.
  • The BPIQ note field on row 15137 was REPLACED, not appended: the 15-month guidance history the 2026-08-04 sweep read from it is gone from the feed; only the 2026-08-10 entry survives. The slip sequence carries older entries from the 2026-08-04 record, tagged as such.
  • Hedge-fund 13F blocks are labelled one quarter late (v5.6.1): the '2026Q2' block's value/shares ratios equal the 2026-03-31 close ($14.91). Every block read shifted back one quarter.
  • Q2 2026 weighted-average shares (104,453,732) exceed the economic count (101,091,756) by ~3.4M, up from a 1.86M gap at the prior sweep; unresolved. Economic count approximate to within ~3%.
  • The historical-catalyst feed omits the two Roche-driven moves and the 2026-08-11 slip reaction; it is not a record of what moved this stock.
  • Drug names are dirty (trailing spaces, four spellings of one molecule); everything keyed on bpiq_drug_id.
  • globenewswire.com timed out on three WebFetch attempts for the Q2 release; text read in full from a BioSpace mirror and cross-checked against the 10-Q, which agrees.

Company document

Human-readable context with tagged evidence

OLMA — Olema Pharmaceuticals (Olema Oncology)

Company context · prepared 2026-08-12 · company sweep 2026-08-12 · USD · framework v5.6.1

How to read this. Written for a reader who has not studied pharmacology or finance. General terms are defined once in framework/04-glossary.md. Tags: [VERIFIED — source] / [UNVERIFIED] / [WEB ESTIMATE — source, date].

Program analyses for this company are the sub-folders listed in C.2.

C.0 Company-tier coverage — CLEARED

ToolStateNote / verbatim error
BPIQ fetch_company_infoCALLEDOne record, read 2026-08-12. last_price $10.43 against a previous close of $11.94; the open/high/low fields (10.98 / 11.28 / 9.70) describe the 2026-08-11 session, the first after the Q1 2027 slip. Financial fields still timestamped 2026-03-31; short fields 2026-07-15.
BPIQ fetch_company_drugsCALLED8 rows, all reproduced in C.2. Row 15137 now carries catalyst_date_text “Q1 2027” and the note “08/10/26: OPERA-01 enrollment completed; topline data now expected Q1 2027.” The note field has been replaced, not appended: the 2025–2026 guidance history it used to carry is gone from the feed and survives only in the 2026-08-04 record (C.8).
BPIQ fetch_company_historical_catalystsCALLEDSame 4 rows as the 2026-08-04 sweep, 2023-10-22 to 2026-05-21. The two Roche-driven moves and the 2026-08-11 slip reaction are all absent, because none is an Olema data catalyst in the feed’s terms; see C.7.
BPIQ fetch_company_options_dataCALLED6 expiries, updated 2026-08-12: 2026-08-21, 2026-09-18, 2026-10-16, 2026-12-18, 2027-01-15, 2028-01-21. With the catalyst moved to Q1 2027, the 2026-12-18 expiry no longer spans it; 2027-01-15 sits inside the guided quarter but only its first two weeks. See C.6.
BPIQ fetch_company_insider_transactionsCALLED250 rows, 2023-02-01 to 2026-07-24. Response exceeded the tool output limit and was read in full from the saved file.
BPIQ fetch_company_press_releasesCALLED287 items, 2021-11-30 to 2026-08-12. Response exceeded the tool output limit and was read in full from the saved file. Q2 2026 results item (2026-08-10) retrieved in full via a mirror after globenewswire.com timed out on three attempts.
EDGAR submissionsCALLEDCIK 0001750284. Filing feed through 2026-08-10: Q2 10-Q and 8-K both filed 2026-08-10; 13G/A 2026-08-06 (FMR, 13.8%) and 2026-07-29 (BlackRock); Form 4 2026-07-27 and Forms 144 2026-07-23/24 (the Harmon sales) — the filing feed and the insider connector agree this sweep.
EDGAR XBRL companyconcept (dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding)CALLED87,497,607 shares as of 2026-08-06, filed with the Q2 10-Q on 2026-08-10.
FINRA consolidatedShortInterestCALLED137 settlements. Newest: 2026-07-31, 15,963,215 shares short, 18.21 days to cover. The 2026-07-31 settlement is published, unlike the corpus’s 2026-08-10 test where it was still lagged.
BPIQ fetch_company_hedge_fund_holdings (optional)CALLED17 quarters, 2022Q2 to 2026Q2. Read with the v5.6.1 label shift: each block’s holdings are one quarter older than its filing_qtr label — the “2026Q2” block’s value/shares ratios all equal $14.91, the 2026-03-31 close, confirming it holds Q1-end positions.
BPIQ fetch_company_earnings_transcript (optional)NOT CALLEDOptional in 02-connectors.md. Management commentary taken from the Q2 2026 results release and 10-Q instead. Does not affect the coverage verdict.
Yahoo options chain (optional)NOT CALLEDOptional cross-check; the BPIQ chain’s near-money strikes are off the floor/ceiling artifacts and readable, so the cross-check adds nothing this sweep. Does not affect the coverage verdict.

C.1 What the company is

Olema Pharmaceuticals, trading as Olema Oncology, is a clinical-stage biotechnology company in San Francisco that develops drugs for breast cancer and other solid tumours [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_info 2026-08-12]. It has no revenue: the Q2 2026 10-Q repeats that the company “has not generated any revenue from product sales to date” and records a $63.2M quarterly net loss [VERIFIED — Q2 2026 10-Q, filed 2026-08-10].

It runs two molecules. Palazestrant (OP-1250) is the lead and accounts for six of the eight pipeline rows below. OP-3136, a KAT6 inhibitor from the Aurigene collaboration, accounts for the other two and is in Phase 1 [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_drugs 2026-08-12]. In practice this is a single-asset company with an early second asset attached: every late-stage row is palazestrant, and the only registrational readout in sight is OPERA-01 — whose topline moved from “fall 2026” to Q1 2027 in the Q2 results on 2026-08-10, with enrollment completed.

C.2 Pipeline — every program

All eight rows returned by fetch_company_drugs on 2026-08-12. The catalyst column reports catalyst_date_text exactly as disclosed; “to a day?” is yes only where that text names a day (01-rules.md, rule 23).

Program (drug — indication)bpiq_drug_idStage & eventCatalyst (as disclosed)Date to a day?Analysed?Materiality to the stock
Palazestrant (OP-1250) — ER+/HER2− metastatic breast cancer, second and third line, monotherapy (OPERA-01)15137Phase 3 Data readoutQ1 2027No — a quarter. BPIQ stores 2027-03-31 as a period-end placeholder.Yes → palazestrant-er-positive-mbc/Dominant. The only row with has_catalyst: true, the sole registrational readout, and the stock fell 12.6% on the day its date slipped one quarter. Every other palazestrant row is either evidence feeding into it or downstream of it.
Palazestrant (OP-1250) + ribociclib — ER+/HER2− advanced breast cancer, first line (OPERA-02)18636Phase 3 UpdateTBANoNoNot assessed — program not analysed. 1,000-patient double-blind Phase 3, enrolment advancing, topline not due until ~2028 (CT.gov primary completion 2028-12). Materially exposed to 15137: same molecule, same disease.
Palazestrant (OP-1250) + everolimus — metastatic breast cancer18171Phase 1/2 Data readoutTBANoNoNot assessed — program not analysed. An arm of OP-1250-003; “PR No update” in the 2026-08-10 note.
Palazestrant (OP-1250) + ribociclib or alpelisib — metastatic breast cancer16995Phase 1/2 UpdateTBANoNoNot assessed — program not analysed. Holds the ribociclib combination data OPERA-02 rests on. No future catalyst of its own.
Palazestrant + atirmociclib — ER+/HER2− metastatic breast cancer19216Phase 1/2 UpdateTBANoNoNot assessed — program not analysed. Pfizer collaboration; the Ph1b/2 study completed enrollment per the 2026-08-10 note. Strategic evidence that a large partner pairs its CDK4 inhibitor with palazestrant; commercially immaterial today.
Palazestrant (OP-1250) + palbociclib — metastatic breast cancer16994Phase 1/2 UpdateTBANoNoNot assessed — program not analysed. NCT05266105, n=60, ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING; no new data or timing.
OP-3136 + Nubeqa (darolutamide) — metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer20488Phase 1/2 InitiationQ4 2026No — a quarter. BPIQ stores 2026-12-31 as a placeholder.NoNot assessed — program not analysed. Bayer collaboration; enrolment starts Q4 2026 per the 2026-08-10 note. A trial start, not a readout.
OP-3136 — cancer, ER+/HER2− breast cancer18342Phase 1 UpdateTBANoNoNot assessed — program not analysed. The second molecule. Initial Phase 1 data at ASCO 2026-05-30: no dose-limiting toxicities to 45 mg, 3 partial responses among 19 evaluable patients. Real but very early.

No row is marked Failed or Discontinued. Olema has still never shut a program down, so there is no track record of how it handles a failure.

C.3 Financial position

ItemValueAs ofTag
Cash and equivalents$461.1M, being cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities2026-06-30[VERIFIED — Olema Q2 2026 results release, 2026-08-10]
Cash and equivalents, modelled today~$430–440M. Six weeks off the 2026-06-30 balance at the Q2 cash-decline rate.2026-08-12[UNVERIFIED — modelled]
Burn (per month)Three readings, and they diverge: Q2 2026 net loss of $63.2M is $21.1M/month; Q2 operating expense (R&D $57.8M + G&A $9.4M = $67.2M) is $22.4M/month; the actual decline in cash plus marketable securities ($505.3M → $461.1M in the quarter, a period with no disclosed financing inflow) is $14.7M/month — the gap is non-cash stock compensation (~$11.5M/quarter) and interest income. BPIQ’s $15.33M is stale (timestamped 2026-03-31) but close to the cash-decline figure.Q2 2026[VERIFIED — Q2 2026 release and 10-Q; recomputed per rule 11]
Runway as the company states itNo runway date published. The Q2 10-Q repeats the going-concern floor: cash, marketable securities and amounts available under the Loan Agreement fund the operating plan “for at least the next 12 months”.filed 2026-08-10[VERIFIED — Q2 2026 10-Q]
Runway recomputed (cash ÷ burn)On the cash-decline rate: $461.1M ÷ $14.7M ≈ 31 months from 2026-06-30, into ~2029-01. On the net-loss rate: ÷ $21.1M ≈ 22 months, into ~2028-04. Burn is still rising (R&D $57.8M in Q2 2026 vs $43.9M a year earlier) and OPERA-02 is a 1,000-patient Phase 3 mid-enrolment, so the truth drifts toward the shorter reading over time. Either way the Q1 2027 readout is comfortably funded.2026-08-12[UNVERIFIED — modelled]
DebtA drawn balance exists under the Loan Agreement: the Q2 10-Q states the carrying amount of “the borrowing” approximated fair value at 2026-06-30, at a variable rate. The drawn amount was not extracted in this sweep. BPIQ’s enterprise value implies only ~$4M of net non-cash liabilities on its own (stale) inputs.2026-06-30[VERIFIED that a borrowing exists — Q2 2026 10-Q; amount UNVERIFIED]

Dilution history. Every raise in the last 24 months, plus the shelf. The new finding this sweep is the ATM: Olema sold stock quietly in H1 2026 at prices around $24, which was not visible in the press feed and surfaced only in the 10-Q equity statement.

DateInstrumentGross proceedsPriceSource
2024-11-29Private placement: 19,928,875 shares at $9.08 plus pre-funded warrants for 7,604,163 shares at $9.0799~$250.0M ($237.0M net)$9.08[VERIFIED — Q2 2026 10-Q]
2024-11-29 / 2025-01-10Warrant exchanges: 3,420,000 + 6,070,000 existing shares exchanged for pre-funded warrants (no new money; register reshuffling under 9.99% ownership caps)——[VERIFIED — Q2 2026 10-Q]
2025-11-19 / 2025-11-20Underwritten public offering, 10,000,000 shares plus option exercised in full$218.5M ($204.8M net)$19.00[VERIFIED — company releases; Q2 2026 10-Q]
2026-03New shelf registration statement. Capacity, not a raise.——[VERIFIED — press feed 2026-03-19 and 2026-03-31]
H1 2026At-the-market sales: 1,712,739 shares for $41.9M net (~$24.5 average — sold while the stock traded in the $20s, i.e. before the March de-rating)$41.9M net~$24.5 avg[VERIFIED — Q2 2026 10-Q equity statement]

The November 2025 offering was priced at $19.00, 82% above today’s $10.43; the H1 2026 ATM sales averaged ~$24.5, 135% above it. Management has now sold equity twice into strength within nine months, both times at levels the market no longer pays.

Is a raise likely before the next catalyst? No. Roughly $435M of modelled cash covers the five-to-eight months to a Q1 2027 readout several times over, and there is no disclosed financing trigger. The pattern to expect is unchanged: a discretionary raise off the March 2026 shelf or the ATM into strength — after a positive readout, or into any pre-readout run-up, as the H1 2026 ATM sales demonstrate.

C.4 Valuation frame

ItemValueSource / tag
Share price (spot)$10.43, the 2026-08-11 close, read 2026-08-12 from BPIQ (last_price; previous close $11.94 = 2026-08-10). The committed price cache’s 2026-08-11 bar carries a null close with volume 2,670,582 present — a Yahoo artifact flagged in C.8 — so the cache’s own last non-null close is still the pre-slip $11.94.[VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_info 2026-08-12; cache gap flagged]
Market capitalisationAs reported: $1,042.9M (BPIQ) — which is the old share count times the previous close (87.35M × $11.94), reproducing the documented bug. Recomputed: $912.6M on 87,497,607 filed common shares × $10.43, and $1,054.4M on 101,091,756 economic shares (common + 13,594,149 pre-funded warrants at $0.0001).[VERIFIED — EDGAR XBRL 2026-08-06 count; Q2 10-Q warrant note]
Enterprise valueAs reported: $541.5M (BPIQ, on stale cash and the buggy market cap). Recomputed: ~$620M, being $1,054.4M economic capitalisation less ~$435M modelled cash today, before the undisclosed drawn loan balance.[UNVERIFIED — modelled from verified inputs]
52-week high / low$36.259 / $4.91 (as of 2026-08-11, from the price cache). The old $4.47 low of August 2025 has rolled out of the window; BPIQ independently reports 4.91.[VERIFIED — data/prices/OLMA.json via lib/prices.mjs range52w, asOf 2026-08-11; BPIQ agrees]
Position in the 52-week range, computed off the last price17.6% — (10.43 − 4.91) ÷ (36.259 − 4.91). BPIQ’s own field reads 22.425%, which is exactly the formula on the previous close of $11.94 — the documented previous-close bug, reproduced again. On the cache’s own last non-null close ($11.94, 2026-08-10, pre-slip) the figure is 22.4%.[VERIFIED — recomputed per rule 11]
Multiple off the 52-week low2.12× the low, and 71.2% below the high[VERIFIED — recomputed]

The 52-week range remains the most important frame. The shares went from ~$4.90 to $36.26 and back to $10.43 in under twelve months, with the two largest legs driven by Roche’s data, not Olema’s (C.7) — and the newest leg down, −12.6% on 2026-08-11, was the first large move driven by Olema’s own disclosure: a one-quarter slip of its defining readout.

C.5 Ownership and flow

Holder typeShareNoteSource
Insider1.77%BPIQ insider_own 0.01767, units unlabelled, read as a fraction — plausible for a diffuse register.[UNVERIFIED — BPIQ, units unconfirmed]
Institutional~63%+BPIQ tute_own reads 1.18488 — junk, rejected under rule 6 as before. The press feed’s last usable figure is 63% (2026-02-05), and disclosures since only add: FMR at 13.8% (13G/A 2026-08-06), BlackRock 6.24M shares (13G/A 2026-07-29), Janus Henderson 8.2%, Bain Capital 8.2%, Invus 4.5%, plus new positions from Dimensional, Defilade, SEB, Siren and Jennison in July–August 13F coverage.[WEB ESTIMATE — press feed; VERIFIED filings for the named holders]
Retail / otherresidualNot separately reported.[UNVERIFIED]
Short interest15,963,215 shares at the 2026-07-31 settlement — 18.2% of the 87.50M filed shares, 18.21 days to cover. BPIQ’s short_float reads 0.23835 (of float, 2026-07-15 stamp); against FINRA’s same-date 15.10M short that implies a float near 63M shares. The short count has climbed five settlements in a row: 11.93M → 12.84M → 14.03M → 15.10M → 15.96M between 2026-05-29 and 2026-07-31.[VERIFIED — FINRA consolidatedShortInterest ÷ EDGAR XBRL share count; BPIQ float fraction consistent]

Insider flow. Still not a single open-market purchase by any Olema officer or director in the 250-row window (2023-02-01 to 2026-07-24) [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_insider_transactions 2026-08-12]. The additions since the 2026-08-04 sweep: director Cyrus Harmon sold 12,500 shares on 2026-07-23 at $11.579 and 12,500 on 2026-07-24 at $11.714 (matching Forms 144 and the 2026-07-27 Form 4 on EDGAR), and the board’s routine annual option grants (29,500 options per director) were made 2026-06-18. The December 2025 – March 2026 exercise-and-sell wave near the top (~1.47M shares at $23–$31) stands as recorded in the 2026-08-04 sweep.

Concentration. Reading the 13F blocks with the v5.6.1 one-quarter label shift, the newest (“2026Q2”, holdings as of 2026-03-31): six funds held 20.4M shares — Paradigm 8.02M (up from 7.54M), BVF 5.30M (unchanged six quarters), Logos 3.21M (unchanged), RA Capital 2.60M, Vivo 0.67M (halved), Ikarian 0.60M. Perceptive and ADAR1 exited during Q1 2026; Deep Track exited the quarter before [VERIFIED — BPIQ fetch_company_hedge_fund_holdings 2026-08-12, labels shifted per 02-connectors.md]. Q2-end (2026-06-30) fund positions will not be visible until the next 13F wave; what is visible since is long-only accumulation: FMR to 13.8% and BlackRock’s updated 6.24M stake.

The register remains crowded on both sides — concentrated specialist longs plus new long-only money, against a short count that has risen every settlement since May. That combination still produces violent moves in both directions, and the −12.6% print on 2026-08-11 is the newest example.

C.6 Options chain and its readability

Plain takeaway. The chain can no longer even bracket the event cleanly, because no listed expiry spans the guided readout window. Topline is guided for Q1 2027; the 2027-01-15 expiry covers only the first two weeks of that quarter, and the next listed expiry is 2028-01-21, a year past it. A position in the January 2027 near-money strikes is a bet the readout lands in the first half of January, which nothing discloses. Near-money implied volatility is readable (~0.96–1.20) and the January $10 straddle at mid prices a ~51% move, but open interest at the money is tiny and spreads are wider than the mid, so the honest expected-move statement remains a bracket — roughly 35% to 75% around the readout — not a point.

ItemValueNote
Spot$10.432026-08-11 close, read 2026-08-12
Nearest listed strike to spot$10.00$11.00 next above
Expiry nearest the next catalyst2027-01-15 — inside the guided quarter but covering only its first two weeks. 2026-12-18 now expires before the window opens; 2028-01-21 is the only expiry past the whole window.The chain’s structure predates the slip: December 2026 still carries the big open interest (5,853 puts at $13, 1,280 puts at $20, 721 calls at $22) positioned for the old “fall 2026” date.
At-the-money straddle ÷ spot2027-01-15 $10 straddle: 0.30 on the bids, 0.71 on the asks, 0.51 at the mid (call 2.65/4.00, put 0.50/3.40)Spreads wider than the mid; the mid is a construction.
Front implied volatility0.96–1.20 across near-money January 2027 strikes ($10C 1.166, $11C 1.195, $12C 1.127, $13P 1.000)Off the BPIQ floor (~0.01488) and ceiling (~9.99512) artifacts, so usable. IV ~1.1 over the 156 days to 2027-01-15 implies a one-standard-deviation move of ~72%.
Open interest at that strike190 calls / 29 puts at the January $10 strike; 148 calls at $12, 207 calls at $15, 100 calls at $13Thin everywhere in January; the liquidity sits in December 2026 strikes that now expire before the event.
Liquidity confidenceLOWReadable surface, negligible at-the-money depth, and a structural gap: no expiry brackets the full window.

C.7 Reaction to past catalysts

DateEventIntraday moveSame-day press-feed checkRead
2023-10-22Palazestrant Phase 1/2 monotherapy data at ESMO (mPFS 4.6 months, CBR 40%)not recorded — null price fieldsCompany release same dayThe first efficacy disclosure on the lead asset; the reaction is missing from the data. A gap, not a zero.
2024-12-09FDA cleared the OP-3136 IND+11.57%Company release same dayClean. Still the largest own-data move in the feed.
2024-12-10Palazestrant + ribociclib updated results at SABCS+9.58%Company release, one day after the IND clearanceConfounded by the previous day.
2026-05-21OP-3136 Phase 1 first-in-human data at ASCO+2.55% intraday on a −1.79% opening gapCompany release same dayMuted and slow.
2025-11-18Not an Olema event. Roche’s giredestrant hit the lidERA Phase 3 primary endpoint in early-stage disease+130% to +197%Olema announced a public offering the same day, priced $19.00 the nextLargest move in the stock’s history; absent from the catalyst feed because the data were a competitor’s.
2026-03-09Not an Olema event. Roche’s persevERA missed−33.4% over the following four weeksOlema’s own Q4 results, a new shelf and a plaintiff-firm release land in the same windowThe class de-rated and Olema went with it.
2026-08-10/11Olema’s own disclosure: Q2 2026 results — OPERA-01 enrollment completed, topline slipped from “fall 2026” to Q1 2027, EPS miss−12.6% close-to-close ($11.94 → $10.43) on 2.67M shares, ~3.5× recent daily volume, on 2026-08-11Q2 release after hours 2026-08-10; Citigroup, HC Wainwright and others cut targets the next morningNot in the historical-catalyst feed (an earnings/guidance event, not a data catalyst). The first meaningfully sized move this equity has produced on its own news: a one-quarter delay of the defining readout cost 12.6%. The price cache’s bar for the day carries a null close (C.8), so this row is computed from BPIQ’s own price fields.

The read that matters. Unchanged in kind: this stock trades as a proxy for the oral-SERD class, and its two largest moves were both Roche’s. What is new is one calibration point on Olema’s own news — a 12.6% fall on a timing slip with no efficacy content at all. Olema has still never reported a registrational efficacy result. Note also what sits inside the run-up window now: the FDA decisions on Roche’s giredestrant — adjuvant by 2026-11-30 and +everolimus by 2026-12-18 — are exactly the kind of class events that have moved this stock more than its own disclosures.

C.8 Company data-quality flags

  • The price cache’s 2026-08-11 bar has a null close with real volume (2,670,582). The one session that matters most this sweep — the −12.6% slip reaction — is a null in data/prices/OLMA.json, so every cache-derived figure (52-week position, run-up entry price) still resolves to the pre-slip $11.94 close of 2026-08-10. This sweep’s spot of $10.43 comes from BPIQ’s last_price instead and is flagged wherever used. The bar should self-heal on the next fetch-prices run; until then the cache and the market disagree by 12.6%.
  • BPIQ market_cap reproduces the previous-close bug and adds a stale share count: $1,042.9M = 87.35M (the 2026-05-07 count) × $11.94 (the 2026-08-10 close). Recomputed in C.4 from the EDGAR-filed 87,497,607 shares and the $10.43 last price.
  • BPIQ max_52_week_position reproduces the previous-close bug: 0.22425 is exactly (11.94 − 4.91) ÷ (36.259 − 4.91). On the last price the figure is 17.6%.
  • BPIQ tute_own (1.18488) is junk and rejected under rule 6, as in the prior sweep.
  • The BPIQ note field was replaced, not appended. The 15-month guidance history (“Topline data in 2026” → “H2 2026” → “fall 2026” → reiteration) that the 2026-08-04 sweep read from this field is no longer in the feed; only the 2026-08-10 entry survives. The slip sequence in the program document therefore carries its older entries from the 2026-08-04 record, tagged as such.
  • Hedge-fund 13F blocks are labelled one quarter late (02-connectors.md, v5.6.1): the “2026Q2” block’s value/shares ratios equal the 2026-03-31 close ($14.91), so it holds Q1-end positions. Read every block shifted back one quarter.
  • The weighted-average share count still does not reconcile. Q2 2026 weighted-average 104,453,732 against 101,091,756 economic shares (87,497,607 common at 2026-08-06 + 13,594,149 pre-funded warrants) — a ~3.4M gap, larger than the 1.86M gap flagged on 2026-08-04, and not resolved by the warrant table in Note 12 (which still sums to 13,594,149). The economic count should be read as approximate to within ~3%.
  • The historical-catalyst feed remains not a record of what moved this stock: the two Roche moves and the 2026-08-11 slip reaction are all absent from its four rows.
  • Drug names are dirty (trailing spaces, four spellings of one molecule). Everything is keyed on the integer bpiq_drug_id.
  • GlobeNewswire timed out on three fetch attempts for the Q2 release; the text was read in full from a BioSpace mirror and cross-checked against the 10-Q’s own figures, which agree.

Sources

    BPIQ fetch_company_info / fetch_company_drugs / fetch_company_historical_catalysts / fetch_company_options_data / fetch_company_insider_transactions / fetch_company_press_releases / fetch_company_hedge_fund_holdings, 2026-08-12 Olema Q2 2026 results release 2026-08-10 (via BioSpace mirror; globenewswire timed out) Olema Q2 2026 Form 10-Q filed 2026-08-10 (share counts, pre-funded warrants, ATM sales, Loan Agreement, cash) EDGAR submissions CIK 0001750284; EDGAR XBRL dei:EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding FINRA consolidatedShortInterest, settlements through 2026-07-31 data/prices/OLMA.json (fetched 2026-08-12, bars through 2026-08-11) via lib/prices.mjs Roche/Genentech and AstraZeneca releases: giredestrant NDA acceptances (decisions due 2026-11-30 and 2026-12-18); camizestrant PDUFA extension