What we passed on, and whether we were right

Every candidate that has left the live board — its catalyst date has passed, or its prediction has settled — together with what became of it. Two questions live here: how many screened candidates turned into a full analysis and how those analyses actually settled, and — the newer one — whether the candidates dismissed along the way were dismissed for good reasons. Scoring a dismissal needs a primary source, so this page never guesses at an outcome; it names the slot and leaves it unrecorded until someone runs the connector call.

NOT CITABLE — screening only

This is a cheap ranked screen, not an analysis. No claim on this board may enter a program analysis without being re-verified there (framework/02-connectors.md § Triage pass). It exists to decide what is worth analysing next, not to support a claim on its own.

Archived

left the live board

Became an analysis

of 10 archived

Dismissed

of the archived rows

Settled

prediction resolved

Dismissal reasons

Each tag from the closed taxonomy, with its count — the seed of the pattern analysis. Recalibrating the A/B/C/D tiers from this is future work, gated on at least 20 dismissals across 3 screens (ROADMAP.md).

Mislabelled row

The row's stage or event label contradicts its own note.

Date conflict

catalyst_date_text disagrees with the note's own timing.

Not a binary

Interim, additional data, or an endpoint already met.

Financing first

Runway ends at or before the event; a raise comes first.

Diluted materiality

Partner-run, multi-asset or revenue-generating, so one readout cannot move it.

Duplicate exposure

The same event is already reachable through another row.

Already priced

The run-up is spent, or a larger event lands first.

Uninvestable

Share count, liquidity or capitalisation makes the equity untradeable regardless of the data.

Outside window

The real event falls before or after the screened window.

Base rate

Indication base rate or a failed sister trial argues against it.

Other

Anything else. The note carries the whole argument.

No dismissal has reached this page yet — a dismissed row only arrives here once its catalyst date passes or its prediction settles (see /triage for dismissals still live). The taxonomy above is the full set from framework/02-connectors.md § Triage pass; counts fill in as screens turn into decisions and those decisions age past their event.

Archived candidates

What became of every row that left the live board

Tier	Ticker	Drug	Indication	Catalyst	Why archived	Dismissal	Became
C	RARE	GTX-102	Angelman syndrome (ASPIRE)	H2 2026	prediction settled	—	Analysed view analysis → Settled — miss — ASPIRE missed its primary (Bayley-4 cognitive raw score) and key secondary (MDRI) endpoints vs sham (-42.4%)
A	TYRA	Dabogratinib (TYRA-300)	Low-grade, intermediate risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (IR NMIBC)	September 2026	prediction settled	—	Analysed view analysis → Settled — miss — pooled 3-month CR 46% (12/26) vs the ≥60% bar; safety clean (-17.75%)
A	EVMN	EVO756 (MRGPRX2 Antagonist)	Moderate-To-Severe Atopic Dermatitis	Q3 2026	prediction settled	—	Analysed view analysis → Settled — miss — primary endpoint (% change in EASI at Week 12) not met at any dose; EVO756 not advanced in AD (-15.58%)
A	IRON	DISC-3405 (formerly MWTX-003)	Polycythemia vera	Q3 2026	prediction settled	—	Analysed view analysis → Settled — positive — 61.5% phlebotomy-free through 26 weeks (Cohort A, n=13), phlebotomies 4.0→0.6 (p<0.0001), well tolerated, advancing (-5.97%)
A	CNTB	Rademikibart /CBP-201	Asthma (Seabreeze STAT)	Early September 2026	catalyst date passed	—	Analysed view analysis → Settled — miss — primary 28-day treatment failure not significant (p=0.153); FEV1 key secondary met (p=0.023) (-36%)
A	LGVN	Lomecel-B (laromestrocel)	Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome	August 2026	catalyst date passed	—	Analysed view analysis → Settled — miss — RVEF primary not met (p=0.8336); MACE and clinical composite not significant (-61.6%)
C	BIVI	Bezisterim (NE3107)	Neurological symptoms associated with long COVID	Late Summer 2026	catalyst date passed	—	Screened
C	OSTX	OST-HER2	Pediatric lung metastatic osteosarcoma	Summer 2026	catalyst date passed	—	Screened
A	VALN	Shigella4V2 (S4V2)	Prevention of shigellosis	Mid-2026	catalyst date passed	—	Analysed view analysis → Locked, awaiting settlement
B	CNSY	REYOBIQ (Rhenium Re186 Obisbemeda)	Leptomeningeal Metastases (LM)	August 13, 2026	catalyst date passed	—	Screened